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Management Science Letters

ISSN 1923-9343 (Online) - ISSN 1923-9335 (Print)
Quarterly Publication
Volume 4 Issue 11 pp. 2415-2422 , 2014

The application of particle swarm optimization algorithm in forecasting energy demand of residential - commercial sector with the use of economic indicators Pages 2415-2422 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Hesam Nazari, Aliye Kazemi, Mohammad Hossein Hashemi, Mahboobeh Nazari

Keywords: Energy, Forecasting, Particle swarm optimization

Abstract: Energy supply security is one of the strategic issues of all states. Beside the energy supply management, the section that has received less attention is energy demand management. According to importance of residential and commercial sectors in energy consumption, in the present study energy demand of these sectors is estimated using linear and exponential functions and the coefficients are obtained from PSO algorithms. 72 different scenarios with various inputs are investigated. Data from the years 1968 to 2011 are used to develop the models and select the suitable scenario. Results show that an exponential model developed based on particle swarm optimization algorithm has had the best performance. Based on the best scenario the energy demand of residential and commercial sectors is estimated 1718 Mega barrel of crude oil equivalent up to the year 2032.

How to cite this paper
Nazari, H., Kazemi, A., Hashemi, M & Nazari, M. (2014). The application of particle swarm optimization algorithm in forecasting energy demand of residential - commercial sector with the use of economic indicators.Management Science Letters , 4(11), 2415-2422.

Refrences
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Assareh, E., Behrang, M., Assari, M., & Ghanbarzadeh, A. (2010). Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran. Energy, 35(12), 5223-5229.

Assareh, E., Behrang, M., & Ghanbarzadeh, A. (2012). The integration of artificial neural networks and particle swarm optimization to forecast world green energy consumption. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 7(4), 398-410.

Assareh, E., Behrang, M., & Ghanbarzdeh, A. (2012). Forecasting energy demand in Iran using genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) methods. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 7(4), 411-422.

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Kaveh, A., Shamsapour, N., Sheikholeslami, R., & Mashhadian, M. (2012). Forecasting transport energy demand in Iran using meta-heuristic algorithms. Int. J. Optim. Civil Eng, 2(4), 533-544.

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Journal: Management Science Letters | Year: 2014 | Volume: 4 | Issue: 11 | Views: 2768 | Reviews: 0

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