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Growing Science » Tags cloud » ARDL

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Sort articles by: ๐Ÿ“– Volume | ๐Ÿ“… Date | โญ Most Rates | ๐Ÿ‘๏ธ Most Views | ๐Ÿš€ Rising Stars | ๐Ÿ”— Citations (Scopus) | ๐Ÿ”ฅ Hot Papers
1.

Dynamic relationship among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth Pages 1015-1024 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Nawaf Abuoliem, Baliira Kalyebara, Mohammad Abdel Mohsen Al-Afeef

doi 10.5267/j.uscm.2023.12.007

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide Emission, Economic Growth, ARDL

Abstract:
The present research analyzes the short and long run relationship between Energy Consumption, Economic growth, and Carbon Dioxide emissions in Jordan. The study employs two (2) models: 1: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach and 2: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality and impulse response function. The results reveal that energy consumption has a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions and in turn carbon dioxide emissions have a positive link to economic growth. Further, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is tested, and it reveals that the EKC hypothesis is validated in the case of Jordan since the carbon dioxide emissions show a significant impact on economic growth in the short and long run. The study provides important results for future researchers and government policy makers.
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Journal: USCM | Year: 2024 | Volume: 12 | Issue: 2 | Views: 1443

 
2.

The relationship between the transportation export value and energy consumption of Thailand Pages 1-12 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Kitimaporn Choochote, Sukanya Sirimat, Tanawat Watchallanun, Sakkarin Nonthapot

doi 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.11.002

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Transportation planning, Energy, Export, ARDL, NARDL

Abstract:
This study was conducted to consider the relationship between the transportation export value (TR) and energy consumption of Thailand (EN) in the long run by a comparative analysis that relied on testing by the ARDL and NARDL models. The Granger causality of each item was also tested by quarterly time series data from Quarter 1 of 2011-Quarter 4 of 2021. The results revealed a long relationship from the EN to TR. However, only the reduction of the TR affected the EN. According to the results, the energy agencies of Thailand should maintain the balance of EN and sufficient energy imports to drive the TR for its stability.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2023 | Volume: 12 | Issue: 1 | Views: 1200

 
3.

Gross domestic product, savings, investment and inflation, an ARDL approach and Toda-Yamamoto causality: Evidence from Zimbabwe Pages 19-30 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Talent Kondo, Simba Mutsvanga, Tonderai Kanyekany

doi 10.5267/j.ac.2025.1.001

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, Savings, Investment, Inflation, ARDL, Toda-Yamamoto Causality

Abstract:
This study examined the causal relationships between inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic savings, and investment in Zimbabwe using Toda-Yamamoto causality tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with secondary data spanning from 1990-2022. The Granger causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causal effect between inflation and GDP, indicating that inflation significantly impacts the country's economic growth. Additionally, the analysis showed a unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to domestic savings, suggesting that high and persistent inflation can erode the value of existing savings and discourage individuals from saving. Furthermore, the study found a distinct causal flow from savings to investment, without feedback in the opposite direction, highlighting the crucial role of a robust savings culture in providing the necessary foundation for sustained investment and economic growth. The ARDL approach provided further insights into the dynamic relationships between these variables. In the short run, lagged GDP and current and lagged savings positively influenced GDP, while the second lag of savings had a negative impact, supporting the Carroll-Weil hypothesis that savings typically follow, rather than precede, economic growth in the short run. The analysis also found a positive short-run and long-run relationship between investment and GDP, supporting the view that investment is an important factor of economic growth. The study recommends that the policy makers can leverage the synergies between savings, investment, and inflation management to foster sustained economic growth and development in line with the government development policies. Developing policies to attract savings and reduce the cost of savings, as well as promoting long-term savings over transactional savings, can increase the country's overall savings base.
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Journal: AC | Year: 2025 | Volume: 11 | Issue: 1 | Views: 574

 
4.

Empirical research on the impact of credit on economic growth in Vietnam Pages 2897-2904 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Hung Manh Pham, Phuong Minh Nguyen

doi 10.5267/j.msl.2020.4.017

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Domestic credit, Economic growth, Granger causality, ARDL

Abstract:
This study examines the Granger causality between domestic credit and gross domestic product (GDP) as well as investigating this long-term relationship in Vietnam from 2004:Q1 to 2017:Q4 with the use of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as the analysis method. Empirical results show that there was a two-way Granger causality relationship between credit and GDP. In addition, credit expansion had a negative impact on economic growth in Vietnam in the long term. Based on this research outcome, the study proposes a number of recommendations focusing on how to overcome the limitations of the bank credit supply channel.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 12 | Views: 3036

 
5.

The impact of tax policy on social development in Vietnam Pages 995-1000 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Nga Phan Thi Hang, My-Linh Thi Nguyen, Hoai Thu Ho, Toan Ngoc Bui

doi 10.5267/j.msl.2019.11.011

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Tax policy, Tax revenue, Unemployment, ARDL

Abstract:
The objective of this paper was to examine the impact of tax policy on social development in Vietnam. In particular, tax policy was measured through the ratio of the governmentโ€™s tax revenue to gross domestic product - GDP (TAX), and social development is measured through unemployment (UNE). The research data were collected from the General Department of Taxation of Vietnam and the World Bank. We used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to analyze time series data in the period 1990-2017. The paper achieved great success in finding the first empirical evidence of the negative impact of tax policy on unemployment in Vietnam in the long term. In addition, we found a statistically significant impact of domestic savings and domestic investment on unemployment in the both short and long term. This shows that tax policy plays an important role for unemployment as well as social development in Vietnam.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 5 | Views: 2047

 
6.

Deposit insurance fund and the quality of risk assets of Nigerian deposit money banks Pages 1129-1140 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Orits Frank Ebiaghan, Edirin Jeroh

doi 10.5267/j.msl.2019.10.028

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Non-Performing Loans, Bank Deposits, Target Reserve Ratio, Asset quality, ARDL, VECM, Nigeria

Abstract:
This paper empirically assesses the relationship between Deposit Insurance Funds (DIF) and the quality of risk assets of listed Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria. The entire fifteen listed DMBs in the country as of 31st December, 2017 were focused on and the secondary data were subsequently sourced from the yearly financials of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) for a 29-year period covering from 1989 to 2017. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Vector Error Correction (VEC) estimation techniques were the basis of estimating the relationship between the variables of interest in this study. Evidence from our analyses indicates that the volume of total deposits and total loans and advances of DMBs have long run negative and statistically significant relationship with DIF. Conversely, the quality of risk assets of DMBs exhibits a positive and insignificant relationship with the target reserve ratio of DMBs. The study thus recommends that regulatory agencies in the banking sector (CBN and NDIC), amongst others, collaborate with listed DMBs to diversify and manage their risk assets by strategically intensifying the implementation of existing measures aimed at minimising incidences of loan default and the alarming levels of non-performing loans in the portfolio of Nigerian DMBs.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 5 | Views: 1803

 
7.

Causal relationship between banking system development and real estate market Pages 41-52 PDF Download PDF

Authors: My-Linh Thi Nguyen, Pham Thi Thanh Xuan, Toan Ngoc Bui

doi 10.5267/j.msl.2019.8.017

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Banking system, Real estate market, Financial crisis, ARDL, Vietnam

Abstract:
This paper analyzes the causal relationship between the banking system development and the real estate market in Vietnam from 2004:Q3 to 2018:Q4, with the use of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as the analysis method. In Vietnam, there is no empirical study on this issue. Therefore, the paper is the first empirical evidence for the relationship between the banking system development and the real estate market in Vietnam. The research results show that the banking system development (measured through the domestic credit to the private sector) and the real estate market had a positive causal relationship in both short and long terms. In addition, the paper found a statistically significant impact of the global financial crisis on the banking system development and the real estate market in Vietnam, which is a new discovery compared with previous studies.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 1 | Views: 2978

 
8.

Investigating monetary policy dynamics in Nigeria: The role of private investment Pages 247-254 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Ilhan Bora, Dervis Kirikkaleli, Joshua Dzankar Zoaka, Festus Victor Bekun, Daberechi Chikezie Ekwueme

doi 10.5267/j.msl.2019.7.037

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Monetary policy, Investment portfolio, ARDL, Nigeria

Abstract:
This paper explored the dynamics of monetary policy and its effect on private investment, using annual frequency data from 1981 to 2017. The paper employed autoregressive distributive lags methodology to estimate the link between private investment and some selected monetary indicators. Empirical finding shows that broad money supply increases private investment in the long run for the study area. Interestingly, our study shows inverse relationship between exchange rate and private investment. These findings are insightful for policymakers for strategic policy mix construction. Consequently, the study recommends, among other things, proper coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, good macroeconomic policies, proper channeling of financial resources to the private sector and proper measures for controlling inflation.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 1 | Views: 1914

 
9.

The effects of corruption on Peru's economic growth during the period 1998-2018 Pages 1645-1654 PDF Download PDF

Authors: Stephany Alessandra Benito Marro, Leon Rivera Mallma, Wagner Vicente-Ramo

doi 10.5267/j.ac.2021.5.006

๐Ÿ”‘ Keywords: Corruption, Economic growth, ARDL, Transmission channels

Abstract:
The objective of this research was to determine the effect of corruption on economic growth in Peru for the period 1998-2018. It was determined how economic growth was affected both in the short and long term by corruption. The corruption control index was used to measure corruption and the variation in gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices was used to measure economic growth. To determine this effect, the hypothetical deductive method was used as a general method since we sought to corroborate a hypothesis and as a specific method, we used the Autoregressive Model of Distributed Lag (ARDL) since this model adapts well to small samples, likewise we had a non-experimental research design โ€“ longitudinal explanatory. Data were collected from the World Bank and the Ministry of Education (MINEDU) from 1998 to 2018. As a result of the econometric ARDL model, it was obtained that corruption had a negative effect on economic growth since an improvement of one percentage point in the corruption index would mean an improvement of 0.55 percentage points in economic growth. Therefore, it is concluded that the effect of corruption has a negative effect on economic growth as expected according to the reviewed antecedents.
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Journal: AC | Year: 2021 | Volume: 7 | Issue: 7 | Views: 2078

 

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