Processing, Please wait...

  • Publisher Home
  • Home
  • 🔙 Back
  • 📚 Journals
    • ⚙️ IJIEC - Industrial Engineering Computations
    • 🌐 IJDNS - Data and Network Science
    • 🧪 CCL - Current Chemistry Letters
    • 💹 AC - Accounting
    • 🎯 DSL - Decision Science Letters
    • 🚛 USCM - Uncertain Supply Chain Management
    • 🏗️ JPM - Journal of Project Management
    • 🏥 HE - Healthcare Engineering
    • 📈 SCI - Scientometrica
    • 🔩 ESM - Engineering Solid Mechanics
    • 🌿 JFS - Journal of Future Sustainability
    • 💼 MSL - Management Science Letters
  • 📝 Submit Article
  • 📊 Statistics
  • 📋 About
    • 📄 About Us
    • 📰 Blog
    • 📢 News
    • 📧 Contact
  • 📺 Tutorial
  • Search:
  • Advanced Search

Growing Science » Decision Science Letters » Assessing the forecasting model ability in measuring the prevention transmission of COVID-19 pandemic: An application of visibility analysis using Inductive logic

⭐ Highly Cited Articles

  • Jaya Algorithm
  • Rao Algorithm
  • TLBO Algorithm
  • ChatGPT and Blended Learning

Journals

  • IJIEC (804)
  • IJDS (992)
  • DSL (722)
  • ESM (434)
  • CCL (544)
  • JPM (323)
  • AC (567)
  • JFS (101)
  • MSL (2653)
  • USCM (1104)
  • HE (49)
  • SCI (50)

DSL Volumes

    • ▼ Volume 15 (73)
      • Issue 1 (19)
      • Issue 2 (22)
      • Issue 3 (32)
    • ▼ Volume 14 (87)
      • Issue 1 (21)
      • Issue 2 (23)
      • Issue 3 (25)
      • Issue 4 (18)
    • ▼ Volume 13 (78)
      • Issue 1 (21)
      • Issue 2 (18)
      • Issue 3 (19)
      • Issue 4 (20)
    • ▼ Volume 12 (64)
      • Issue 1 (12)
      • Issue 2 (24)
      • Issue 3 (13)
      • Issue 4 (15)
    • ▼ Volume 11 (49)
      • Issue 1 (9)
      • Issue 2 (9)
      • Issue 3 (14)
      • Issue 4 (17)
    • ▼ Volume 10 (43)
      • Issue 1 (7)
      • Issue 2 (8)
      • Issue 3 (20)
      • Issue 4 (8)
    • ▼ Volume 9 (39)
      • Issue 1 (8)
      • Issue 2 (9)
      • Issue 3 (14)
      • Issue 4 (8)
    • ▼ Volume 8 (38)
      • Issue 1 (8)
      • Issue 2 (6)
      • Issue 3 (14)
      • Issue 4 (10)
    • ▼ Volume 7 (41)
      • Issue 1 (8)
      • Issue 2 (8)
      • Issue 3 (8)
      • Issue 4 (17)
    • ▼ Volume 6 (30)
      • Issue 1 (8)
      • Issue 2 (6)
      • Issue 3 (9)
      • Issue 4 (7)
    • ▼ Volume 5 (39)
      • Issue 1 (12)
      • Issue 2 (10)
      • Issue 3 (8)
      • Issue 4 (9)
    • ▼ Volume 4 (48)
      • Issue 1 (10)
      • Issue 2 (12)
      • Issue 3 (14)
      • Issue 4 (12)
    • ▼ Volume 3 (53)
      • Issue 1 (15)
      • Issue 2 (10)
      • Issue 3 (19)
      • Issue 4 (9)
    • ▼ Volume 2 (30)
      • Issue 1 (5)
      • Issue 2 (6)
      • Issue 3 (9)
      • Issue 4 (10)
    • ▼ Volume 1 (10)
      • Issue 1 (5)
      • Issue 2 (5)

🔑 Keywords

Supply chain management(168)
Jordan(167)
Vietnam(154)
Customer satisfaction(124)
Performance(116)
Supply chain(113)
Artificial intelligence(99)
Competitive advantage(98)
Service quality(98)
Tehran Stock Exchange(94)
SMEs(92)
Sustainability(91)
optimization(88)
TOPSIS(85)
Trust(84)
Financial performance(84)
Job satisfaction(81)
Knowledge Management(80)
Genetic Algorithm(80)
Social media(79)


» Show all keywords

✍️ Authors

Naser Azad(83)
Zeplin Jiwa Husada Tarigan(67)
Mohammad Reza Iravani(64)
Endri Endri(45)
Muhammad Alshurideh(42)
Hotlan Siagian(40)
Dmaithan Almajali(38)
Jumadil Saputra(36)
Muhammad Turki Alshurideh(35)
Ahmad Makui(33)
Barween Al Kurdi(32)
Sautma Ronni Basana(31)
Basrowi Basrowi(31)
Hassan Ghodrati(31)
Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard(30)
Haitham M. Alzoubi(30)
Shankar Chakraborty(29)
Ni Nyoman Kerti Yasa(29)
Prasadja Ricardianto(28)
Sulieman Ibraheem Shelash Al-Hawary(28)


» Show all authors

🌍 Countries

1. Algeria (52)
2. Angola (2)
3. Argentina (22)
4. Armenia (2)
5. Australia (52)
6. Austria (2)
7. Bahrain (26)
8. Bangladesh (58)
9. Belarus (4)
10. Belgium (3)
11. Benin (2)
12. Benin Republic (1)
13. Bhutan (1)
14. Bosnia and Herzegovina (1)
15. Botswana (8)
16. Brazil (40)
17. Brunei (1)
18. Bulgaria (1)
19. Burkina Faso (1)
20. Cameroon (1)
Total: 121 countries

Show all countries
Decision Science Letters
ISSN 1929-5812 (Online) - ISSN 1929-5804 (Print)
Quarterly Publication
Volume 11 Issue 2 pp. 159-166, 2022

Assessing the forecasting model ability in measuring the prevention transmission of COVID-19 pandemic: An application of visibility analysis using Inductive logic Pages 159-166 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Yuyun Hidayat, Titi Purwandari Sukono, Jumadil Saputra

📋 Author Affiliations:
Y. Hidayat ORCID 1, T. Purwandari2, Sukono Sukono ORCID 3, J. Saputra ORCID 4
1 Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jawa Barat, Sumedang, 45363, Indonesia
2 Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jawa Barat, Sumedang, 45363, Indonesia, Doctoral Program in Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jawa Barat, Sumedang, 45363, Indonesia
3 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jawa Barat, Sumedang, 45363, Indonesia
4 Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Development, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, 21030, Malaysia
doi 10.5267/j.dsl.2021.11.004
Crossref 1 Source: CrossRef

🔑 Keywords: Decision making, Forecasting model, Visibility analysis, Transmission prevention measures, Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract: Forecasting is an integral approach due to its ability to make informed act decisions and develop data-driven strategies. It's also used to make decisions related to current circumstances and predictions on future conditions. An integral part has been developed using visibility analysis for COVID-19 Outbreak, a lesson from Indonesia. The author identified that its topic has limited attention, especially in assessing the forecasting models. The issue comes from predicted results that are questionable or cannot be trusted without applying the visibility analysis in the forecasting model. The visibility analysis is required to assess the model's ability to forecast future events. In conjunction with the issue, this paper introduces the analysis of visibility error with the different concepts during model development for the transmission prevention measures in making the decision. This study applied a statistical approach to assess the visibility error of forecasting performance in determining how long periods of forecasting and deciding for transmission prevention measures COVID-19 pandemics. Also, we developed the visibility error of time-variant using inductive logic. The result indicated that the number of data required to perform forecasting work on the basis of forecasting model specifications. In conclusion, this study has been completed to develop the statistical formula for identifying the largest time horizon in forecasting model N = V + 2. Also, this developed model can assist the stakeholder in forecasting the number of transmission prevention and making the decision in case of COVID-19 pandemic.

How to cite this paper
APA: Hidayat, Y., Sukono, T & Saputra, J. (2022). Assessing the forecasting model ability in measuring the prevention transmission of COVID-19 pandemic: An application of visibility analysis using Inductive logic. Decision Science Letters, 11(2), 159-166.
Chicago/Turabian: Hidayat, Y., Sukono, T & Saputra, J. 2022. "Assessing the forecasting model ability in measuring the prevention transmission of COVID-19 pandemic: An application of visibility analysis using Inductive logic." Decision Science Letters 11, no. 2 (2022): 159-166.
AMA: Hidayat, Y., Sukono, T & Saputra, J. Assessing the forecasting model ability in measuring the prevention transmission of COVID-19 pandemic: An application of visibility analysis using Inductive logic. Decision Science Letters. 2022;11(2):159-166.

References
Arbi, I. A. (2020). Cases Surges by Record 2,657 After West Java Military Academy Outbreak. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/09/cases-surge-by-record-2657-after-west-java-military-academy-outbreak.html
Ahlburg, D. A. (2001). Population forecasting In J S Armstrong Ed Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners, 557–575, Springer/New York.
Beritasatu. (2020). Indonesia confirms first Coronavirus cases in its territory. Jakarta Globe. https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-confirms-first-coronavirus-cases-in-its-territory
Breitung, J., & Knüppel. M. (2018). The Accuracy of Tourism Forecasting and Data Characteristics: A Meta-Analytical Approach [Discussion Paper]. Deutsche Bundesbank. https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/724700/537073d29cd916931011e4116e27b4e3/mL/2018-04-25-dkp-07-data.pdf
Calantone, R., Benedetto, D. C., & Bojanic, D. (1987). A comprehensive review of the tourism forecasting literature. Journal of Travel Research, 26(2), 28–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/004728758702600207
Dalton, C. B., Corbett, S. J., & Katelaris, A. L. (2020). Pre-emptive low-cost social distancing and enhanced hygiene implemented before local COVID-19 transmission could decrease the number and severity of cases. The Medical Journal of Australia, 212(10), 1-10. https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/pre-emptive-low-cost-social-distancing-and-enhanced-hygiene-implemented-local-covid-19
Gordon, S. (1995). How Long is the Firm's Forecast Horizon? Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20(6-7), 1145-1176. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00893-4
Grekousis, G., & Liu, Y. (2019). Where Will the Next Emergency Event Occur? Predicting Ambulance Demand in Emergency Medica Services Using Artificial Intelligence Computers. Environment and Urban Systems 76, 110–122.
Gugus Tugas. (2020). Distribution Map. Indonesia’s Task Force of COVID-19 Rapid Response. https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran
Henderson, S., & Mason, A. (2004). Ambulance Service Planning: Simulation and Data Visualisation. In: Brandeau M.L., Sainfort F., Pierskalla W.P. (eds) Operations Research and Health Care. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 70. Springer/Boston. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8066-2_4
Hidayat, Y. (2016). Identifying Indicators For Rice Crisis Forecasting in Indonesia. [Thesis Doctor of Philosophy: Universiti Malaysia Terengganu].
Hidayat, Y. (2020). Sampai Kapan Prediksi Yuyun Hidayat Terbukti? Fakultas MIPA Universitas Padjadjaran. http://www.fmipa.unpad.ac.id/fix/2020/08/31/
Hsu, L., & Wang, C. (2008). Applied multivariate forecasting model to tourism industry, Institute for Tourism 56(2), 159–172. https://core.ac.uk/display/14408994
Kim, N. & Schwartz, Z. (2013). The Accuracy of Tourism Forecasting and Data Characteristics: A Meta-Analytical Approach. Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management 22(4), 349374.
Lee, C., Song, H., & Mjelde, J. (2008). The forecasting of International Expo tourism using quantitative and qualitative techniques. Tourism Management 29(6), 1084–1098. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.02.007
Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. (2006). Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(1), 57–71. https://core.ac.uk/reader/61007643
Li, G., Song, H., & Witt, S. (2005). Recent developments in econometric modelling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research 44(1), 82–99. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276594
Luo, J. (2020). When Will COVID-19 End? Data-Driven Prediction. Data Drive Innovation Laboratory. https://pametnoibezbedno.gov.rs/files/file_upload/fajl/1405_End_of_Covid_Prediction_Table.pdf
Moriyama, M., Walter, J. H., & Akiko, I. (2020). Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections Annual Reviews Virol 7(1), 83-101. https://doi.org/ 10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445
New Desk. (2020). It shows that we're working', South Sulawesi governor says of surge in COVID-19 cases. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/06/14/it-shows-that-were-working-south-sulawesi-governor-says-of-surge-in-covid-19-cases.html
Nurbaiti, A. (2020). Indonesia's Daily Average of New COVID-19 Cases Continues to Climb: WHO. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/16/indonesias-daily-average-of-new-covid-19-cases-continues-to-climb-who.html
Pangestika, D. (2020). West Java extends PSBB in Jakarta's satellite cities until July 2. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/06/07/west-java-extends-psbb-in-jakartas-satellite-cities-until-july-2.html
Parzen, E. (1981). Time Series Model Identification and Prediction Variance Horizon in Applied Time Series Analysis (2nd ed.) In: D F Findley (eds), 415 – 447. Academic Press.
Rettner, R. (2020). Up to 25% of People with COVID-19 may not Show Symptoms. Livescience. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread.html
Setkab. (2020a). Health minister signs regulation on guidelines to propose large-scale social restrictions amid COVID-19 pandemic. Office of Assistant to Deputy Cabinet Secretary for State Documents & Translation. https://setkab.go.id/en/health-minister-signs-regulation-on-guidelines-to-propose-large-scale-social-restrictions-amid-covid-19-pandemic/
Setkab. (2020b). President Jokowi Orders Strict; Cautious Protocols During New Normal. Office of Assistant to Deputy Cabinet Secretary for State Documents & Translation. https://setkab.go.id/en/president-jokowi-orders-strict-cautious-protocols-during-new-normal/
Ulum, M. (2020). Up and down extreme positive COVID-19 cases in Surabaya causes. Surabaya Bisnis.
Witt, S., & Witt, C. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting 11, 447–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00591-7
Yuliasari, E. (2020). SUTD Prediksi Covid-19 di Indonesia Berakhir 28 Oktober. Biem,. https://www.biem.co/read/2020/05/12/58452/sutd
Zahroh, S., Pontoh, R. S., Hidayat, Y., Jiwani, N. M., Supartini, E., & Sukono. (2020). Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate in Facing COVID-19 (A Time Series-Machine Learning Approach. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control System, 12(6), 862-872. https://doi.org/ 10.5373/JARDCS/V12I6/S20201103
  • 0
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

📚 Journal: Decision Science Letters | 📅 Year: 2022 | 📖 Volume: 11 | 📄 Issue: 2 | 👁️ Views: 1235 | 📊 Crossref: 1

Related Articles:
  • Forecasting model of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia: An application of time series approach using neural network
  • Contribution of robust optimization on handling agricultural processed products supply chain problem during Covid-19 pandemic
  • The effects of digital marketing implementation on online consumer in Selangor during COVID-19 pandemic
  • Business analysis in the times of COVID-19: Empirical testing of the contemporary academic findings
  • Fight against COVID-19: A global outbreak response management performance view

📝 Ready to share your research?

Decision Science Letters is accepting new submissions for upcoming issues. Join our community of authors and publish your work with us.

✓ Open access
✓ Rigorous peer review
✓ Fast publication
📤 Submit Your Manuscript →

📖 Author Guidelines

® 2010-2026 GrowingScience.Com