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Growing Science » Authors » Sudradjat Supian

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Sort articles by: Volume | Date | Most Rates | Most Views | Reviews | Alphabet
1.

Financial optimization modeling on asset liability management with weighted goal programming Pages 951-966 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Hagni Wijayanti, Sudradjat Supian, Diah Chaerani, Adibah Shui

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2024.7.004

Keywords: Financial Ratio, Factor Analysis, Optimization, Multi Objective, Weighted Goal Programming, Best-Worst Method

Abstract:
Asset Liability Management (ALM) can be overseen using financial ratios derived from financial statements. These statements provide a comprehensive picture of a company's status and necessitate analysis to evaluate performance. This research aims to analyze financial ratios to describe the financial condition, measure business development over time, and evaluate the achievement of the company's objectives. An optimization analysis of financial ratios is performed using the Weighted Goal Programming (WGP) model, which addresses multiple objectives by applying weights based on their priorities. The Best-Worst Method (BWM) was used to determine the priority weights of deviation variables from each financial ratio target. Financial ratios were selected based on their impact on profit using factor analysis. The constructed WGP model aims to minimize deviations in Return on Assets, Operating Ratios, Operating Income Ratio, Total Assets Turnover, and Current Ratio. Computational calculations to solve the WGP model are performed using Python, with pseudocode provided. A case study on a company in the garment and textile sector was conducted and found that the Operating Ratio, Return on Assets, Operating Income Ratio, and Current Ratio still need improvement by developing strategies to achieve the targets. Sensitivity analysis was also employed to assess the resilience of the model in response to alterations in data.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2024 | Volume: 13 | Issue: 4 | Views: 885 | Reviews: 0

 
2.

Estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in stock investment of insurance companies: An application of the extreme value theory Pages 749-758 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Riaman Riaman, Amarulla Octavian, Sudradjat Supian, Sukono Sukono, Jumadil Saputra

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.7.001

Keywords: Risk, Investment, Insurance, Extreme Value Theory

Abstract:
As a capital market investment, stocks have risks that must be managed. Therefore, investors should consider the returns and risks of investment products. This study aims to estimate the risk of insurance companies' loss when investing. The method used to estimate the level of risk is Value at Risk (VaR) based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The data used is secondary data in the form of daily stock closing prices from two insurance companies, AXA General Insurance and BRI Insurance, from January 2016 to January 2022. The data were used to estimate the risk value according to the EVT principle. As a result, Insurance AXA General Insurance, with 5.91% liquidity, has the lowest VaR value with a 99% confidence level, while BRI Insurance has 5.04%. We concluded from these results that AXA General Insurance has a lower investment risk. It means that each company has a different risk value. Therefore, investors should know these risk factors when choosing a company.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2023 | Volume: 12 | Issue: 4 | Views: 1060 | Reviews: 0

 
3.

Determination of the natural disaster insurance premiums by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions: An application of collective risk model Pages 211-222 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Sukono Sukono, Kalfin Kalfin, Riaman Riaman, Sudradjat Supian, Yuyun Hidayat, Jumadil Saputra, Mustafa Mamat

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.4.002

Keywords: Natural disasters, Mitigation Fund Reserve Decisions, Collective Risk Model, Insurance premium

Abstract:
In Indonesia, natural disasters cases have significantly increased from time to time and have the largest impact on economic losses. To avoid losses in the future due to natural disasters, the insurance company needs to estimate the risk and determine the rate of premium that would be charged to the policyholder. In conjunction with the present issue, this study seeks to determine the premium rate and estimate the size claim of insurance by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions using The Collective Risk Model (CRM). The data was analyzed using the Poisson process with Weibull distribution to determine the natural disaster frequency and losses. The distribution of losses is estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and the magnitude of losses was estimated using the CRM. Also, the mean and variance estimators of the aggregate risk were used to estimate the premium charged. The results indicated that expectation and variance of the frequency of incident claims have the same value, i.e., 2562. Also, the loss claims follow the Weibull distribution with the expected value and variance of 5.81309×1010 and 2.5301×1022, respectively. The mean and variance of the aggregate (collective) claims are 148,931,365,800,000 and 7.35×1025, respectively. In conclusion, this study has successfully determined the efficient pure premium model through the Standard Deviation Principle (SDP). SDP provides a much cheaper premium than the Expected Value Principle with the same loading factor. In addition, SDP considers the standard deviation of the collective risk of natural disasters. The implications of the results of the premium determination are expected to be the basis for decision-making for insurance companies and the government in determining insurance policies for natural disaster mitigation.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2022 | Volume: 11 | Issue: 3 | Views: 1618 | Reviews: 0

 
4.

Analysing the decision making for agricultural risk assessment: An application of extreme value theory Pages 351-360 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Riaman Riaman, Sukono Sukono, Sudradjat Supian, Noriszura Ismail

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2021.2.003

Keywords: Agricultural Insurance, Risk Assessment, Climate Variables, Extreme Value Theory

Abstract:
As the most contributed sectors in agriculture, rice farming is facing various risks, namely uncertainty such as crop failure caused by climate change, including air temperature, weather, rainfall and others. Indonesia is categorised as an agricultural country with a tropical climate. By this season, the farmers can plant the rice. Rice farming is currently an inseparable part of most agricultural societies in Indonesia, especially in West Java. However, changes in air temperature, weather and annual rainfall, can increase the uncertainty and upward the risk of crop failure. Thus, the current study seeks to investigate the decision making for agricultural risk assessment (climate variable) through the formulation of a risk model for agricultural insurance in Indonesia. This study utilised the climate variables, which consist of air temperature, wind speed, maximum and minimum temperatures, and rainfall. For determining the magnitude of risk, we applied the Block Maxima method and Peak Over Threshold. The results of this study found that the highest risk of losses occurred in November, December, January, February and March with a value of 0.17485.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2021 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 3 | Views: 1580 | Reviews: 0

 
5.

Investigating the agricultural losses due to climate variability: An application of conditional value-at-risk approach Pages 71-78 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Sukono Sukono, Riaman Riaman, Sudradjat Supian, Yuyun Hidayat, Jumadil Saputra, Diantiny Mariam Pribadi

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2020.10.002

Keywords: Allocation of agricultural land, Climate variable, Crop insurance, Optimization, Risk measure, Optimal Decision

Abstract:
The agricultural sector is directly affected by climate variables. The presence of climate variability causes a considerable risk to agricultural productivities. Thus, risk management is an alternative to reduce risks, including optimizing the allocation of farmland and choosing crop insurance for a specific planting date. The purpose of this study is to investigate the agricultural risk management through risk measure of climate variability using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in rice production. This paper investigated several possible considerations of agricultural insurance premiums based on losses climate index. We concluded that the climate index insurance policy is the best choice that farmers can choose for each planting date, the higher the significance value considered, the more the value of Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2021 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 1 | Views: 1626 | Reviews: 0

 

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