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Growing Science » Decision Science Letters » Determination of the natural disaster insurance premiums by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions: An application of collective risk model

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Decision Science Letters

ISSN 1929-5812 (Online) - ISSN 1929-5804 (Print)
Quarterly Publication
Volume 11 Issue 3 pp. 211-222 , 2022

Determination of the natural disaster insurance premiums by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions: An application of collective risk model Pages 211-222 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Sukono Sukono, Kalfin Kalfin, Riaman Riaman, Sudradjat Supian, Yuyun Hidayat, Jumadil Saputra, Mustafa Mamat

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.4.002

Keywords: Natural disasters, Mitigation Fund Reserve Decisions, Collective Risk Model, Insurance premium

Abstract: In Indonesia, natural disasters cases have significantly increased from time to time and have the largest impact on economic losses. To avoid losses in the future due to natural disasters, the insurance company needs to estimate the risk and determine the rate of premium that would be charged to the policyholder. In conjunction with the present issue, this study seeks to determine the premium rate and estimate the size claim of insurance by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions using The Collective Risk Model (CRM). The data was analyzed using the Poisson process with Weibull distribution to determine the natural disaster frequency and losses. The distribution of losses is estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and the magnitude of losses was estimated using the CRM. Also, the mean and variance estimators of the aggregate risk were used to estimate the premium charged. The results indicated that expectation and variance of the frequency of incident claims have the same value, i.e., 2562. Also, the loss claims follow the Weibull distribution with the expected value and variance of 5.81309×1010 and 2.5301×1022, respectively. The mean and variance of the aggregate (collective) claims are 148,931,365,800,000 and 7.35×1025, respectively. In conclusion, this study has successfully determined the efficient pure premium model through the Standard Deviation Principle (SDP). SDP provides a much cheaper premium than the Expected Value Principle with the same loading factor. In addition, SDP considers the standard deviation of the collective risk of natural disasters. The implications of the results of the premium determination are expected to be the basis for decision-making for insurance companies and the government in determining insurance policies for natural disaster mitigation.

How to cite this paper
Sukono, S., Kalfin, K., Riaman, R., Supian, S., Hidayat, Y., Saputra, J & Mamat, M. (2022). Determination of the natural disaster insurance premiums by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions: An application of collective risk model.Decision Science Letters , 11(3), 211-222.

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Journal: Decision Science Letters | Year: 2022 | Volume: 11 | Issue: 3 | Views: 1696 | Reviews: 0

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