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1.

Gross domestic product, savings, investment and inflation, an ARDL approach and Toda-Yamamoto causality: Evidence from Zimbabwe Pages 19-30 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Talent Kondo, Simba Mutsvanga, Tonderai Kanyekany

DOI: 10.5267/j.ac.2025.1.001

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, Savings, Investment, Inflation, ARDL, Toda-Yamamoto Causality

Abstract:
This study examined the causal relationships between inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic savings, and investment in Zimbabwe using Toda-Yamamoto causality tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with secondary data spanning from 1990-2022. The Granger causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causal effect between inflation and GDP, indicating that inflation significantly impacts the country's economic growth. Additionally, the analysis showed a unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to domestic savings, suggesting that high and persistent inflation can erode the value of existing savings and discourage individuals from saving. Furthermore, the study found a distinct causal flow from savings to investment, without feedback in the opposite direction, highlighting the crucial role of a robust savings culture in providing the necessary foundation for sustained investment and economic growth. The ARDL approach provided further insights into the dynamic relationships between these variables. In the short run, lagged GDP and current and lagged savings positively influenced GDP, while the second lag of savings had a negative impact, supporting the Carroll-Weil hypothesis that savings typically follow, rather than precede, economic growth in the short run. The analysis also found a positive short-run and long-run relationship between investment and GDP, supporting the view that investment is an important factor of economic growth. The study recommends that the policy makers can leverage the synergies between savings, investment, and inflation management to foster sustained economic growth and development in line with the government development policies. Developing policies to attract savings and reduce the cost of savings, as well as promoting long-term savings over transactional savings, can increase the country's overall savings base.
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Journal: AC | Year: 2025 | Volume: 11 | Issue: 1 | Views: 411 | Reviews: 0

 
2.

Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability Pages 59-64 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Khuram Shafi, Liu Hua, Zahra Idrees

Keywords: Co integration, Exchange rate volatility, Gross domestic product

Abstract:
Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM) in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2015 | Volume: 5 | Issue: 1 | Views: 3630 | Reviews: 0

 

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