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1.

Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability Pages 59-64 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Khuram Shafi, Liu Hua, Zahra Idrees

Keywords: Co integration, Exchange rate volatility, Gross domestic product

Abstract:
Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM) in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2015 | Volume: 5 | Issue: 1 | Views: 3577 | Reviews: 0

 
2.

Exchange rate volatility and export growth in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach Pages 191-202 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: P. Srinivasan, M. Kalaivani

DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2013.04.002

Keywords: ARDL-UECM, Cointegration, CUSUM, CUSUMQ, Exchange rate volatility, India, Real exports

Abstract:
This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the real exports in India using the ARDL bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Using annual time series data, the empirical analyses has been carried out for the period 1970 to 2011. The study results confirm that real exports are cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, real exchange rate, gross domestic product and foreign economic activity. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant negative impact on real exports both in the short-run and long-run, implying that higher exchange rate fluctuation tends to reduce real exports in India. Besides, the real exchange rate has negative short-run and positive long-run effects on real exports. The empirical results reveal that GDP has a positive and significant impact on India’s real exports in the long-run, but the impact turns out to be insignificant in the short-run. In addition, the foreign economic activity exerts significant negative and positive impact on real exports in the short-run and long-run, respectively.
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Journal: DSL | Year: 2013 | Volume: 2 | Issue: 3 | Views: 3953 | Reviews: 0

 

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