Bali is a world tourist destination that is famous for having various types of interesting maritime tourism, including mangrove areas which are typical of equatorial regions. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can predict the sustainability of ecotourism in the mangrove area in Bali based on the approach of empowering local potential and empowering the community. Data analysis was carried out using Bayesian Network analysis, where input was based on the results of the FGD. The results show high probability of realizing the sustainability of ecotourism, where the most influential variables are community participation and local product developers or mangrove-based products. In addition, the condition of the mangrove forest also needs attention, considering that the sustainability of mangrove ecotourism is very sensitive to changes in the condition of the mangrove forest. The three main variables have reflected the combination of the three elements of sustainability, namely people-social (community participation), planet-environment (mangrove forest condition), and profit-economic (developing of mangrove-based products). Mangrove ecotourism development in Bali should be focused on increasing community participation and the development of mangrove-based products.

Sustainable tourism is known as an effort to prevent the negative impacts of tourism development by considering economic, social and environmental aspects. Sustainable tourism development is very important to be used as a reference in managing tourism destinations. The large tourism potential in the Bali Province has been inventoried by the Provincial Government of Bali by establishing a tourism area. However, in its development, several designated tourism areas cannot develop optimally and tend to experience a decrease in the quality and quantity of tourist visits. This paper presents transformation pathways toward sustainable tourism development in tourism areas. The general objective is to determine strategies that can be pursued in the development of tourism areas. The specific objective is to develop the best policies and scenarios in the development of tourism areas. This research was conducted in the Soka Tourism Area in Bali Province, Indonesia, which is the only strategic tourism area in Tabanan Regency, which has great potential but has not been able to develop optimally. The data obtained from the focus group discussion, as a data collection method will be analyzed using the MULTIPOL method. The results of the research show that the development of sustainable tourism areas can be carried out by preparing a clear and measurable framework. Promotion, preparation of cross-sector programs and tourism management training activities are needed as priority programs. On the policy, it is necessary to carry out effective planning as an optimal policy involving all stakeholders. In addition, the “Progressive Transformation” and “Integrated Transformation” scenarios can be considered to achieve sustainable tourism development. This study can be an important input for stakeholders in determining policies for the development of tourism areas in the research locations and can be applied in other areas that have similar characteristics.