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1.

Long range dependency and forecasting of housing price index and mortgage market rate: evidence of subprime crisis Pages 419-430 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Nadhem Selmi, Nejib Hachicha

DOI: 10.5267/j.msl.2015.3.012

Keywords: Prediction error, Subprime crisis, Whittle

Abstract:
In this paper, we examine and forecast the House Price Index (HPI) and mortgage market rate in terms of the description of the subprime crisis. We use a semi-parametric local polynomial Whittle estimator proposed by Shimotsu et al. (2005) [Shimotsu, K., & Phillips, P.C.B. (2005), Exact local Whittle estimation of fractional integration. The Annals of Statistics, 33(4), 1890-1933.] in a long memory parameter time series. Empirical investigation of HPI and mortgage market rate shows that these variables are more persistent when the d estimates are found on the Shimotsu method than on the one of Künsch (1987) [Künsch, H.R. (1987). Statistical aspects of self-similar processes. In Y. Prokhorov and V.V. Sazanov (eds.), Proceedings of the First World Congress of the Bernoulli Society, VNU Science Press, Utrecht, 67-74.]. The estimating forecast values are more realistic and they strongly reflect the present US economy actuality in the two series as indicated by the forecast evaluation topics.
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Journal: MSL | Year: 2015 | Volume: 5 | Issue: 5 | Views: 2264 | Reviews: 0

 

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