Detecting how a cutout affects the critical buckling load in circular cylindrical shell is a serious issue for the design of the shells used in marine structures, aerospace and automobile applications. In this paper, buckling behavior of aluminum cylindrical shell with rectangular cutout, subjected to axial pressure was studied by means of finite element simulations. The effects of geometric parameters (R, t, a, b and L) on the first buckling mode capacity of the shell were studied. The effects of these factors and their interaction effects were investigated by combined numerical and statistical analysis. The results show that R/b, t and Rt/b were the main effective factors of critical buckling load. Based on the statistical analysis, a model for prediction of the critical buckling load was obtained with an accuracy equal to 95% (R2, R2 (pred) and R2 (adj)). This equation could be used to predict the critical buckling load of an isotropic circular shell with a rectangular cutout.