Open Access Original Article | |||
1. |
Simulation and modeling of human decision-making process through reinforcement learning based computational model involving past experiences
, Pages:366-378 Nimisha Gupta, Mitul Kumar Ahirwal and Mithilesh Atulkar PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Experience plays a vital role in the decision-making (DM) process. In this paper simulation, modeling, and analysis of past experience over DM has been done using the Iowa gambling task (IGT). The Human DM process is very complex and difficult to model through computational methods because it is a subjective type of process and varies person-to-person. Therefore, this study is an attempt to simulate a DM model similar to the human DM process. For this collection of real data was done and was provided as input to the developed eight Reinforcement Learning (RL) models. The result shows that the performance of the model based on Prospect Utility (PU) learned with Decay Reinforcement Rule (DRI) and Trial Dependency Choice (TDC) is better as compared to other models. It is observed from the analysis of data and also validated that simulation and models output that the experienced group performs better than inexperienced. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.9.001 Keywords: Past experiences, Decision-Making, Reinforcement Learning, Learning rules, Iowa Gambling Task
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Open Access Original Article | |||
2. |
Peru-China international trade and its effect on inclusive economic growth in Peru 2000-2019
, Pages:379-390 Harold D. Angulo-Bustinza, Glenn R. Arce-Larrea, Valentín J. Calderon-Contreras and Wilmer Florez-Garcia PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: From 2000 to 2019, trade between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Peru grew at an average annual rate of 22%, however, income and wealth inequality in Peru remained the same. The aim of this study is to understand the effect of trade between Peru and China on the inclusive economic growth of Peru from 2000 to 2019. The method used was the correlation of variables, and a linear regression between Peru and China trade and several indicators of inclusive economic growth in the Peruvian economy was performed using the Ordinary Least Squares model. The results suggest that there is sufficient statistical evidence to support that inclusive economic growth may depend on increased trade between Peru and China; the study show that if trade growth between Peru and China fluctuates by $1 million per year, labor income will increase by $10.3 per capita in the Economically Active Population (EAP). Moreover, for every 1% increase in trade between Peru and China, GDP per capita increases by 0.1057% and labor productivity increases by 0.0681740%. The variables poverty, vulnerable employment, GINI index and life expectancy at birth were not significant factors. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.8.003 Keywords: International Trade, Inclusive Economic Growth, Inclusion, Ordinary Least Square Model
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Open Access Original Article | |||
3. |
Determinants of efficiency of Indonesian Islamic rural banks
, Pages: 391-398 Endri Endri, Naning Fatmawatie, Sugianto Sugianto, Humairoh Humairoh, Mohammad Annas and Arjuna Wiwaha PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: The purpose of the study is to evaluate the efficiency of Islamic Rural Banks (BPRS) and analyze the factors that determine them using a two-stage approach to Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). DEA in this study focuses on the production, intermediation, and inefficiency causes. This research was done on BPRS across Indonesia. The data were taken from a financial report for the 2013-2021 period. The source of the data was a publication from the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia. The data were analyzed using the non-parametric approach with a two-stage DEA method. The input variables were personnel costs, fixed assets, and third-party funds. The result shows that Revenue Sharing, ROA, and Growth have a significant positive effect on DEA. BOPO and inflation have a positive but insignificant effect on DEA. While NPF and FDR have negative but insignificant effects on DEA. Then CAR has a negative and not significant effect on DEA. It also shows that the variables of Revenue Sharing, NPF, ROA, CAR, FDR, BOPO growth, and inflation have a simultaneous effect on DEA. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.8.002 Keywords: Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis, Islamic Rural Banks, Indonesia
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Open Access Original Article | |||
4. |
AHP and fuzzy logic geospatial approach for forest fire vulnerable zones
, Pages: 399-406 Nawras Shatnawi PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Fires are devastating risky events in forests, having a negative effect on resources, biodiversity, economics, animal life, and putting people in danger. The goal of this study is to use geospatial techniques to identify areas in Jordan that are at risk of forest fires. The research area extends 50 kilometers north and 15 kilometers east from the Dead Sea. The forest fire risk zones map was developed using six factors: land cover class, aspect, proximity to settlements, elevation, slope, and proximity to roads. All of the factors have been selected based on their fire sensitivity or capacity to cause fire. In this study, a Turkish model with fuzzy logic and Analytical hierarchy analysis (AHP) was utilized to classify the area into five categories of risk ranging from very low to very high. According to the findings, approximately 12.12% of the study area is classified as very low risk, 25.54 % is classified as medium risk, while 12.84% is classified as very high risk. Over the last ten years, the map has been confirmed by prior fire occurrences using data from civil defense archives. This conclusion was very useful in gaining an understanding of the geographical distribution of fire-vulnerable zones. The research found that the GIS approach combined with AHP and fuzzy logic is a useful tool for estimating such kinds of maps. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.8.001 Keywords: AHP, Forest Fire, Vulnerable Zones, Digital Terrain Model, GIS, Geospatial Techniques, Fuzzy Logic
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Open Access Original Article | |||
5. |
A multilayer feed-forward neural network (MLFNN) for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP)
, Pages: 407-418 Amir Golab, Ehsan Sedgh Gooya, Ayman Al Falou and Mikael Cabon PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Project management has a fundamental role in national development, industrial development, and economic growth. Schedule management is also one of the knowledge areas of project management, which includes the processes employed to manage the timely completion of the project. This paper deals with the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP), which is a part of schedule management. The objective of the problem is to optimize and minimize the project duration while constraining the resource quantities during project scheduling. There are two important constraints in this problem, namely resource constraints and precedence relationships of activities during project scheduling. Many methods such as exact, heuristic, and meta-heuristic have been developed by researchers to solve the problem, but there is a lack of investigation of the problem using methods such as neural networks and machine learning. In this article, we develop a multi-layer feed-forward neural network (MLFNN) to solve the standard single- mode RCPSP. The advantage of this method over evolutionary methods or metaheuristics is that it is not necessary to generate numerous solutions or populations. The developed MLFNN learns based on eight project parameters, namely network complexity, resource factor, resource strength, average work per activity, percentage of remaining work, etc., which are calculated at each step of project scheduling, and identified priority rules, which are the outputs of the developed neural network. Therefore, after the learning process, the network can automatically select an appropriate priority rule to filter out an unscheduled activity from the list of eligible activities and schedule all activities of the project according to the given project constraints. Finally, we investigate the performance of the presented approach using the standard benchmark problems from PSPLIB. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.7.004 Keywords: Project scheduling, Project management, Artificial neural network, Priority rules, RCPSP, Resource constraint
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Open Access Original Article | |||
6. |
Development of efficient strategies to optimize production efficiency: Evidence from Pine chemical industry
, Pages: 419-430 Hezlisyah Siregar, Arif Imam Suroso, Hermanto Siregar and Setiadi Djohar PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: A pine tree, namely Pinus merkusii is an indigenous species from Indonesia which grows extensively in the Island of Java, Sumatera, and Sulawesi. This plant produces both timber and non-timber forest products (TFP and NTFP). Resin or oleum pine resin, as the main NTFP of Pinus merkusii, becomes the raw material for the gum rosin and turpentine oil industry. Globally, Indonesia is ranked 3rd as a producer of pine products after China and Brazil, in which Perhutani as a State Owned Forestry Enterprise plays a major role in this industry. On average, Perhutani manufactures 65,000 tons of gum rosin and 14,000 turpentine oil per year. Entire volume of both pine products is produced by nine factories with various maximum capacities. Therefore, this research aims to measure efficiency and/or inefficiency score of each factory using data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, which is then complemented by a single bootstrap technique with 2.000 iterations to eliminate bias scores. Cost of raw material, labour, energy, and general affairs are employed as input variables, while the output variables are total revenue and production volume. As result, 27.3% inefficiency (efficiency score = 72.7%) is generally found in all Perhutani’s pine chemical factories. To resolve this inefficiency issue, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) pairwise comparison questionnaire is distributed to 13 expert respondents to determine prioritized operational capability to focus on in optimizing efficiency of production performance. Dimensions of Cost, Quality, Flexibility, Innovation, and Sustainability are selected to construct the AHP questionnaires. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.7.003 Keywords: Pine chemical products, Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Efficiency/inefficiency, Dimension of operational capability, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
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Open Access Original Article | |||
7. |
Decision-making in formation of mean-VaR optimal portfolio by selecting stocks using K-means and average linkage clustering
, Pages:431-442 Ahmad Fawaid Ridwan, Herlina Napitupulu and Sukono PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Stock is one of the investment assets that has its charm for investors. It is very liquid and has a high rate of return, but it has a high risk. The strategy commonly used to minimize investment risk is to diversify through portfolio formation. A good allocation of funds must be determined in forming an optimal portfolio. In addition, the method of stock selection needs to be considered so the stocks are well diversified and the portfolio developed has good performance. This study aims to compare stock selection between K-Means and Average Linkage clustering approaches in forming an investment portfolio. Clustering analysis is used to group IDX80 stocks based on their attributes. In forming a portfolio with the Mean-VaR model, the stock selection decision criteria used are by selecting stocks with the highest positive returns from each cluster. As a result, the two clustering techniques show the superiority of the Silhouette score for a certain number of clusters, but there are still more advantages in Average Linkage. The portfolio approached by Average Linkage resulted in a better performance than the portfolio approached by K-Means. Therefore, Average Linkage clustering can be used as a better recommendation in decision-making to select stocks so as to produce optimal portfolio performance. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.7.002 Keywords: Average Linkage, K-Means, Clustering, Investment Portfolio, Mean-VaR
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Open Access Original Article | |||
8. |
The influences of Interest rate volatility on banking sector development: Evidence from cross countries in the MENA region
, Pages: 443-454 Hamed Ahmad Almahadin, Thair Kaddumi, Mohammad Sulieman Jaradat, Belal Shneikat and Mansour Alkhazaleh PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationship between a set of banking sector development indicators and interest rate volatility for 12 emerging market countries during the period of 1980-2019. For this purpose, the bounds testing within autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed. The empirical results reveal that the interest rate volatility has negative impacts on the majority of the banking sector development indicators which also play a significant role in dampening the banking sector development path in the long-run. These findings suggest that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers to improve the banking system and to promote economic growth of emerging economies. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.7.001 Keywords: Banking sector development, Interest rate volatility, Bounds testing, ARDL approach, Co-integration, Emerging market countries
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Open Access Original Article | |||
9. |
A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making and system dynamics approach in vulnerability analysis of TNI-POLRI power
, Pages: 455-472 B. A. Yulianto, I. G. Sudjatmiko, A. Octavian and I N. Putra PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This study analyzes the vulnerability of the power relations between the Indonesian National Armed Forces and the Indonesian National Police (TNI-Polri power relations) post-1998 Reform. This article employed exploratory sequential mixed methods in answering the research problem. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and System Dynamics methods were utilized in the study. Based on the research results, the variables of Socio-Economic (SE) Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity (AC) have the highest weight value of 0.329. Meanwhile, the variable of Institutional Vulnerability has the lowest weight, 0.142. Overall, the vulnerability value of TNI-Polri power relations post-1998 Reform was still in the Low Vulnerability category with a value of 1,699 (33.97%). The vulnerability value of TNI-Polri power relations in the next five years will increase from a score of 1.66 in 2022 to 1.74 in 2027 so that it will increase by 5% with the same category level, namely Low Vulnerability. This study is expected to strengthen TNI-Polri power relations in maintaining national political stability. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.6.004 Keywords: Vulnerability, Indonesia Armed Forces (TNI), Indonesia Police (Polri), TNI-Polri Relations, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), System Dynamics
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Open Access Original Article | |||
10. |
An efficient hybrid genetic algorithm for solving truncated travelling salesman problem
, Pages:473-484 S. Purusotham, T. Jayanth Kumar, T. Vimala and K.J. Ghanshyam PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This paper considers a practical truncated traveling salesman problem (TTSP), in which the salesman is only required to cover a subset of out of given cities (rather than covering all the given cities as in conventional travelling salesman problem (TSP)) with minimal traversal distance. Thus, every feasible solution tour contains exactly cities including the starting city. However, extensive research on TSP has been received and various efficient solution techniques including exact, heuristic, and metaheuristic algorithms are devoted, a very limited attention has been given to TTSP models because of its solution structure. The TTSP model comprises two types of problems including city selection i.e. as a salesman's trip need not include all the cities, the challenge is to identify which combination of cities are to be visited and which sequence of cities will constitute minimal traversal distance. A hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) comprising sophisticated mutation operators is developed to tackle this problem efficiently. Comparative computational findings suggest that the proposed GA has capability to outperform existing approaches in terms of TTSP results. In addition, the proposed GA report improved results and will serve as a basis for forthcoming TTSP studies. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.6.003 Keywords: Truncated travelling salesman problem, Genetic algorithm, Mutation strategies
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Open Access Original Article | |||
11. |
Determining the factors influencing residential property price: A comparative study between Indonesia and Malaysia
, Pages:485-496 Raden Aswin Rahadi, Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono, Yunieta Anny Nainggolan, Kurnia Fajar Afgani, Rostam Yaman, Ahmad Shazrin Mohamed Azmi, Farrah Zuhaira Ismail, Jumadil Saputra, Dwi Rahmawati and Aisyah Moulynia PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: The property is a unique product that cannot be contrasted with other commercial products due to pricing conditions. Property price determination is one of the crucial aspects of property development activities because of the profit margin made by the developer and the purchasing preferences. This study attempts to extend the literature that has largely focused on factors of housing prices in developed markets and provided recent evidence of housing price determinants in two countries (i.e., Indonesia and Malaysia). Thus, this study examines the factors affecting housing prices in Jakarta Metropolitan Region and Greater Kuala Lumpur. A quantitative approach was used involving two countries, namely Indonesia and Malaysia. The data was collected using a survey questionnaire through purposive sampling. A total of 100 respondents (Indonesia) and 134 respondents (Malaysia) participated in this study. The data was analyzed using descriptive (frequency) and inferential statistics (chi-square test and multinomial regression). The results indicated that housing location, property funding, and health have a significant effect on residential property prices in Indonesia. Besides that, the results displayed that housing physical design, home design and construction, developer and real estate products, development concepts, housing location, property funding, social status, health, law provisions, and external factors do not affect residential property price in Malaysia. Despite being neighbors, Indonesia and Malaysia have distinct economic and landscape characteristics. Furthermore, considering Indonesia has a higher number of Covid-19 cases than Malaysia, significant information on how the pandemic has affected the demand, cost, and pricing of residential housing in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur will be provided. The findings of this study will provide recommendations to investors, buyers, and policy about the residential housing industry's prospects for growth in emerging nations following the pandemic. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.6.002 Keywords: Residential Property Price, Consumer Decision, Preferences, Marketing Strategy, Comparative study
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Open Access Original Article | |||
12. |
Exploring quality inspection and grade judgment of distortion defects in the fabrication of spectacle lenses
, Pages:497-508 Hong-Dar Lin, Tung-Hsin Lee, Chou-Hsien Lin and Yuan-Shyi Peter Chiu PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This study explores the quality control system featuring visual inspection and grade judgment for detecting distortion defects in spectacle lens fabrication. Spectacle lenses must be precisely curved to help accommodate nearsightedness and farsightedness. The curved shape allows the lens to have different curvatures in different areas during grinding. The spectacle lens will be prone to optical distortion when the curvature changes abnormally. Accordingly, this study proposes an automatic distortion flaw inspection system for spectacle lenses to substitute professional inspectors who rely on empirical judgment. We first apply the digital imaging of a concentric circle pattern through a testing lens to create an image of that lens. Second, the centroid–radii model is employed to stand for the shape property of each concentric circle in the image. Third, by finding the deviations of the centroid radii for detecting distortion flaws through a small variation control method, we obtain a different image showing the detected distortion regions. Four, based on the distortion amounts and locations, we establish the fuzzy membership functions and inference rulesets to measure distortion severity. Finally, the GA-ANFIS model is applied to determine the quality levels of distortion severity for the detected distortion flaws. Trial outcomes reveal that the proposed automatic inspection system can help practitioners in spectacle lens fabrication, for it attains a high 94% correct classification rate of quality grades in distortion severity, 81.09% distortion flaw detection rate, and 10.94% fake alert rate, in distortion inspection of spectacle lenses. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.6.001 Keywords: Quality inspection, Grade judgment, Fabrication of spectacle lenses, Distortion defect, Exponentially weighted moving average method, Fuzzy inference model
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Open Access Original Article | |||
13. |
Determining the urban economic resilience planning through ratio of original local government revenue
, Pages: 509-520 Titi Purwandari, Sukono, Yuyun Hidayat and Wan Muhamad Amir W Ahmad PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Today, the economic resilience in Indonesia measures using the index approach, but it does not consider the effect of the disturbance and causes meaningless. The index is essentially an average, and the average is not a model that captures the relationship between variables. This research differs significantly from earlier studies that used the index to measure economic resilience. The crucial step in assessing the economic resilience of a city is to determine the economic resilience decision variable itself. If a variable significantly correlates with the disturbance factors in each relationship pattern, it is considered suitable as an economic resilience variable. This study evaluates variable Z as an economic resilience variable with a significant relationship to its disturbance variable. The evaluation method is conducted in-depth by studying Indonesia's cities over five years (2015-2019). Z, the ratio of Original Local Government Revenue (PAD) to the number of poor people in a city as a cost centre, will be evaluated as a prospective decision variable for economic resilience. The statistical relationship between Z and 9 disturbance variables is examined using piecewise linear regression analysis. All 514 cities in Indonesia were observed extensively for identification during a five-year observation period. Rosenbrock pattern search estimation was used to estimate the model parameters. The following results were obtained by analysing the data with the STATISTICA software. As determined by parsimonious analysis, the price of Pertalite fuel and the US dollar foreign exchange are two disturbance factors that are crucial to the fall in the resilience variable Z. The joint effect of these two variables on the decline in the resilience measure Z is 73.63 percent. The study concludes that Z is a city-level economic resilience decision variable that applies to all 514 cities in Indonesia and is measured as the ratio of PAD to the number of poor people. This study's novel contribution to Indonesian policymakers is Z as a new economic resilience decision variable that can be used to assess cities' relative economic resilience. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.5.005 Keywords: Economic resilience variable, Original local government revenue, Piecewise linear regression, Disturbance and control variable, Decisions science
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Open Access Original Article | |||
14. |
An algorithm to estimate the risk of child labor
, Pages:521-528 Ricky Bryan Quiñones Fabian, Ruben Aldair Andamayo Alcantara, Abel Jesus Inga Lopez, Jaime Antonio Huaytalla Pariona and Jimmy Alberth Deza Quispe PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: In developing countries, child labor has become a significant problem with adverse effects in the present and future for society and individuals. There are many causes that obligate children to abandon school and start working. Economic, social, familiar, and personal problems can expel children from school, inhibiting them from living appropriately. Polls like the ENAHO in Peru tried to recollect relevant data as much as possible to explain this problem. With many variables, it is necessary to have a methodology to build an algorithm with enough explanatory power to explain the situation. Therefore, this research elaborated an algorithm through Lasso to proportionate a statistical explanation of child labor. Due to the type of data, the regression was logistic. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.5.004 Keywords: Lasso, Child labor, Logit, Social stratification, Poverty
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Open Access Original Article | |||
15. |
The collective effect of rework, expedited-rate, external source, and machine failures on manufacturing runtime planning
, Pages:529-544 Yuan-Shyi Peter Chiu, Singa Wang Chiu, Tiffany Chiu and Hui-Chi Wang PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Production managers face the growing trend of rapid-response orders and inevitable production defects and failures; they must carefully measure these factors’ effects to minimize operating expenditures and operational disruption. Inspired by assisting producers decide the optimal runtime policy under these real situations, this work investigates the collective impact of rework, expedited-rate, external source, and machine failures on such a specific fabrication system. A partial outsourcing and expedited manufacturing rate are considered in the studied system to reduce the batch fabricating time. Additionally, defects rework and repair failure machines are implemented to retain the quality and avoid production disruption. Our research scheme consists of (1) developing a model for the mentioned manufacturing characteristics; and (2) analytical and optimization techniques for deciding the best batch runtime decision by minimizing the system’s overall expenses. Lastly, we provide numerical examples to demonstrate the model’s applicability and disclose important, in-depth characteristics that facilitate managerial decision-making. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.5.003 Keywords: Optimization, Manufacturing system, Machine failures, Runtime, Rework, Expedited-rate, External source
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Open Access Original Article | |||
16. |
Selection of optimum plant layout using AHP-TOPSIS and WASPAS approaches coupled with Entropy method
, Pages:545-562 Anand S. Shivade and Sagar U. Sapkal PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Layout design and selection often have notable effects on the performance of the manufacturing industry. This research investigates the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to find out the optimum plant layout design. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through the real-life setting for the gearbox manufacturing industry. Manual and computerized layout generation approach is used efficiently and accordingly, six layout designs are generated. The approach takes into account qualitative as well as quantitative performance criteria for the selection of layout design. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to obtain the weight of qualitative measures. Ranking of alternatives is obtained through the application of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Weighted Aggregated Sum-Product Assessment (WASPAS) both integrated with the Entropy method. Empirical findings indicate that the rank acquired using the TOPSIS method is perfectly parallel to those acquired through the WASPAS method, which confirms the applicability and potential of these methods. Also, the effect of the parameter λ in WASPAS method on performance score is stable. At the same time, this paper analyses the rank reversal phenomenon and proves that the ranking proposed by TOPSIS satisfies ranking stability. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.5.002 Keywords: Unequal area plant layout, MCDM, AHP, TOPSIS, WASPAS, Entropy method, Rank Reversal
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Open Access Original Article | |||
17. |
Technique of Accurate Ranking Order (TARO): A novel multi criteria analysis approach in performance evaluation of industrial robots for material handling
, Pages:563-589 Bipradas Bairagi PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Rank reversal in decision making is a common phenomenon resulting in confusion and ambiguity in selection procedure especially while multiple multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are independently applied. To eradicate this confusion, this paper proposes a novel MCDM methodology namely Technique of Accurate Ranking Order (TARO). The TARO method is an extension of conventional MCDM approaches. The proposed method commences at the end of conventional methodologies with the final selection values. The proposed technique, using an advanced version of entropy weighting method, initially measures weights of the final selection values. Subsequently, based on the final section values and their computed weights, TARO measures accurate selection indices that determine the accurate ranking order of the alternatives. The proposed technique is illustrated by three real life examples on robot selection problems. The results obtained by TARO justify the validity, applicability and requirements of the proposed techniques for proper decision making under the MCDM environment. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.5.001 Keywords: MCDM, Technique of accurate ranking order (TARO), Advanced version of entropy weighting method, Industrial robot selection
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