Open Access Original Article | |||
1. |
The odds of accident-type casualties in a Peruvian jungle road
, Pages: 163-168 Angela Denisse Huaman Meza, Gian Carlos Meza Soto, Jahir Chuquillanqui Guillen and Giovene Perez Campomanes PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: The current analysis analyzed the odds of casualties by road accidents. Hence, data were classified into tertiles for better research, and accident types were classified into five following the authority methodology: rollovers, crash, roadway departure, special accident, and car capsizing. Multi-logistic regression was employed for the data analysis. This research found that rollover was the most deadly accident, and the crash was the most probable to cause injuries. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.3.003 Keywords: Road accidents, Multiple logistic regression, Road safety, Casualties
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Open Access Original Article | |||
2. |
Zero emissions in the production of hydrogen fuel using seawater as the main resource through the artificial leaf tool: a proposal for a bibliographic review
, Pages: 169-178 Karla Paola Paco Izarra, Pamela Del Carmen Enriquez Villegas, Angie Kinverlin Inga Ramos and Dante Manuel García Jiménez PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Polluted air creates health problems for people, plants and animals today due to many factors in industrial cities and power generation projects, transportation and chemical industry and others. It is for this reason that this research in bibliographic review allows us to know the different solutions to produce hydrogen through the analysis of the Scopus database and the VOSviewer tool that allows us to analyze the data, considering the variables that are artificial leaf, hydrogen, production , clean energy through seawater, graphs and tables were obtained which provide us with an analysis of the number of publications, the countries that carry out these investigations and the bibliometric maps worldwide for a global analysis. The results allow us to analyze and learn about the different solutions and materials that are used to carry out artificial photosynthesis that develops the production of hydrogen by separating water molecules with the aim of emitting zero emissions and being able to use it in different applications such as fuel, energy electrical, industrial uses and others. The purpose of this research is to allow us to make better decisions to apply this methodology according to the materials that we have in greater scope and that is a promising future for a generation of the new industry for the following years, also considering the objectives of sustainable development and finally, motivate readers to continue with these investigations and be able to apply it with institutions in charge of combating this problem. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.3.002 Keywords: Artificial leaf, Hydrogen, Production, Clean energy, Sea water
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Open Access Original Article | |||
3. |
Estimating flood catastrophe bond prices using approximation method of the loss aggregate distribution: Evidence from Indonesia
, Pages: 179-190 Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Sukono, Herlina Napitupulu, Rose Irnawaty Ibrahim, Muhamad Deni Johansyah and Jumadil Saputra PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Losses experienced by the Indonesian government due to floods are predicted. It is because of the significance of population growth, closure of water catchment areas, and climate change in many regions in Indonesia. The government has tried to reduce the risk but faces insufficient funds. Therefore, new innovative funding sources are essential to overcome these limitations. One way to obtain it is through issuing Flood Catastrophe Bonds (FCB). Unfortunately, Indonesia has had no FCB price estimate until now. On the basis of this problem, this study aims to estimate the FCB price in Indonesia. The primary method used is the approximation method of the aggregate loss distribution. This method can compute the aggregate flood loss cumulative distribution function value faster. The FCB fair price estimation results are cheap because the risk of the instrument is significant. This significant risk is also proportional to the large return. Finally, further analysis shows that in Indonesia, the attachment point of the FCB has a relationship that is in line with the price, while the term of FCB does not. This research is expected to assist the Indonesian government in determining the fair price of FCB in Indonesia. This research can assist the investors in choosing FCB based on expected return, attachment point, and the term they want. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.3.001 Keywords: Catastrophe bond, Flood, estimation, Pricing, Indonesia, Approximation method, Aggregate loss distribution
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Open Access Original Article | |||
4. |
The effect of audit quality as a moderator on the relationship between financial performance indicators and the stock return
, Pages: 191-198 Yazen Oroud, Mohammad Almashaqbeh, Hamed Ahmad Almahadin, Abdulrahman Hashem and Marwan Altarawneh PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This study investigates how audit quality moderates the effect of financial performance indicators on the stock returns of Amman Stock Exchange-listed firms (ASE). The panel data analysis selected the data of 95 ASE-listed firms from 2013 through 2021. This analysis demonstrates a significant inverse relationship between a company's book value and its stock returns. A statistically negative relationship was observed between cash flow, dividends per share, and stock return. The empirical results of this study confirm the moderating influence of audit quality in the relationship between financial performance and stock return. Firstly, auditor's fees have a significant impact on the relationship between firm stock returns and EPS, BV, DPS, and cash flows (CFO). The size of the auditing firm moderates the relationship between company stock returns and EPS, DPS, and the CFO, but not with book value (BV). The auditor's opinion moderates the relationship between business stock returns and EPS, BV, and DPS but not the relationship between firm stock returns and cash flows (CFO). The study suggests that regulatory bodies like the Companies Control Department (CCD) and ASE should make sure that local audit firms in Jordan improve their audit quality to be on par with the Big 4 audit firms in order to improve their financial performance measures and stock returns. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.2.005 Keywords: Audit Quality, Financial performance indicators, Stock return
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Open Access Original Article | |||
5. |
A comparison between CNN and combined CNN-LSTM for chest X-ray based COVID-19 detection
, Pages: 199-210 Julio Fachrel, Anindya Apriliyanti Pravitasari, Intan Nurma Yulita, Mulya Nurmansyah Ardhisasmita and Fajar Indrayatna PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: COVID-19 detection through radiological examination is favoured since it is fast and produces more accurate results than the laboratory approach. However, when it has infected many people and put a strain on the healthcare system, the need for fast, automatic COVID-19 detection in patients has become critical. This study proposes to detect COVID-19 from chest X-ray (CXR) images with a machine learning approach. The main contributions of this paper are to compare two powerful deep learning models, i.e., convolutional neural networks (CNN) and the combination of CNN and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). In the combination model, CNN is recommended for feature extraction, and COVID-19 is classified using the features of LSTM. The dataset used in this study amounted to 4,095 CXR images, consisting of 1,400 images of normal conditions, 1,350 images of COVID-19, and 1,345 images of pneumonia. Both CNN and CNN-LSTM were executed in a similar experimental setup and evaluated using a confusion matrix. The experiment results provide evidence that the CNN-LTSM is better than the CNN deep learning model, with an overall accuracy of about 98.78%. Furthermore, it has a precision and recall of 99% and 98%, respectively. These findings will be valuable in the fast and accurate detection of COVID-19. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.2.004 Keywords: COVID-19, X-ray, Deep Learning, Convolutional Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory
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Open Access Original Article | |||
6. |
Decision-making model for the effective e-services adoption in the Indian educational organizations
, Pages: 211-224 Venkateswarlu Nalluri, Thao-Trang Huynh-Cam, Hanumantha Rao Sama and Long-Sheng Chen PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Due to the advances in wireless network environments, consumers/end-user behaviors continue to expand in cyberspace. Similarly, university students (i.e. universities’ consumers) can easily shift from one university to another. In recent years, decision-makers in educational organizations have faced multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems in e-service adoption in order to improve quality standards and maintain students’ retention in highly competitive education environments. Generally, many required criteria in MCDM cannot be evaluated accurately since accurate data cannot be obtained from the decision makers’ assessments. Thus, this research aims to propose a decision-making model for identifying the factors that highly impact on e-service adoption in educational organizations. This new model combined the fuzzy Decision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (fuzzy DEMATEL) and fuzzy Techniques for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (fuzzy TOPSIS) to weight the interactions among the factors which were defined from a comprehensive review of literature and to determine the relative importance of these factors. The findings from our new proposed model: fuzzy DEMATEL-TOPSIS showed that environmental factors are the most important for effective e-service adoption among educational organizations in India. The proposed decision making model could guide educational organizations to improve their decisions related to technology adoption in their organizations. The conclusions and practical insights gleaned from this research could also hopefully be useful to school authorities in assisting with the adoption, acceptance, and usage of e-services. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.2.003 Keywords: E-service, E-service adoption, Decision-making model, Fuzzy DEMATEL, Fuzzy TOPSIS, Educational organizations
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Open Access Original Article | |||
7. |
A convolutional neural network for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP): A new approach
, Pages: 225-238 Amir Golab, Ehsan Sedgh Gooya, Ayman Al Falou and Mikael Cabon PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: All projects require a structure to meet project requirements and achieve established goals. This framework is called project management. Therefore, project management plays an important role in national development and economic growth. Project management includes various knowledge areas such as project integration management, project scope management, project schedule management, etc. The article focuses on the resource-constrained project scheduling known as problem so- called the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). The RCPSP is a part of schedule management. The standard RCPSP has two important constraints, resource constraints and precedence relationships of activities during project scheduling. The objective of the problem is to optimize and minimize the project duration, subject to the above constraints. In this paper, we develop a convolutional neural network approach to solve the standard single mode RCPSP. The advantage of this algorithm over conventional methods such as metaheuristics is that it does not need to generate many solutions or populations. In this paper, the serial schedule generation scheme (SSGS) is used to schedule the project activities using an evolved convolutional neural network (CNN) as a tool to select an appropriate priority rule to filter out a candidate activity. The evolved CNN learns according to the eight project parameters, namely network complexity, resource factor, resource strength, average work per activity, etc. The above parameters are the inputs of the network and are recalculated at each step of the project planning. Moreover, the developed network has priority rules which are the outputs of the developed neural network. Therefore, after the learning process, the network can automatically select an appropriate priority rule to filter an activity from the eligible activities. In this way, the algorithm is able to schedule all project activities according to the given project constraints. Finally, the performance of the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach is investigated using standard benchmark problems from PSPLIB in comparison to the MLFNN approach and standard metaheuristics. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.2.002 Keywords: Project scheduling, Scheduling, Project management, Artificial neural network, Convolutional neural network, RCPSP, Resource constraint
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Open Access Original Article | |||
8. |
A planning model for repairable spare part supply chain considering stochastic demand and backorder: an empirical investigation
, Pages: 239-254 Vahid Babaveisi, Ebrahim Teimoury and Mohammad Reza Gholamian PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Today, improving machine availability is vital for industries to compete in the global market. Spare parts play an essential role in the maintenance and repair of equipment, but planning an extensive network in strategic industries with various spare parts can be very challenging due to the existence of different decision factors. The spare parts supply chain deals with inventory management issues, which necessitates considering the related decisions such as determining the stock level and order quantity. Moreover, demand uncertainty and long supply time make decision-making more complex. This paper presents a repair and supply planning model for repairable spare parts while considering a modified formulation of demand uncertainty to minimize costs. The model determines the optimal stock level, lateral transshipment, assignment of spare part orders to suppliers, equipment to repair centers, and the number of intervals over the planning horizon used in demand estimation. This research contributes to the literature by integrating recent decisions, using demand approximation by piecewise linearization, and considering backorder in warehouses evaluated by queuing models. A hybrid approach, including heuristic and genetic algorithms, is used to optimize the model using data from an oil company. The results show that using piecewise linearization and integrated repair and supply planning decisions optimizes costs and improves performance. Also, the availability is affected by the demand estimation, which necessitates precision prediction. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.2.001 Keywords: Inventory, Spare part supply chain, Planning, Queuing, Uncertainty
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Open Access Original Article | |||
9. |
A two-stage SEM-artificial neural network analysis of the organizational effects of Internet of things adoption in auditing firms
, Pages: 255-266 Awni Rawashdeh, Layla Abaalkhail and Mashael Bakhit PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This paper examines the role of vision as a mediating variable of the relationship between organizational factors and IoT adoption in audit firms in the US. Using a combination of analyses based on structural equation modeling (SEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) technology as the primary research methodology. Seven hypotheses were accepted, including one related to the impact of vision on IoT adoption. In general, all accepted hypotheses had a positive effect on IoT adoption. In addition to the direct positive impact of vision on IoT technology adoption, the magnitude of that effect varied depending on the context of each hypothesis. Drawing evidence from the results, this study demonstrates that vision was a partial mediating variable in the relationship between the organizational factor and IoT adoption. As a result, the model can help audit firms adopt IoT technology successfully. On the other hand, it makes essential recommendations for implementing IoT technology in light of the role that vision plays as a mediating variable in this model. The Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and Diffusion of Innovation theory (DOI) are combined with the vision to improve model predictive power. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.009 Keywords: TOE framework, Vision, Internet of things (IoT), Audit firms, Adoption
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Open Access Original Article | |||
10. |
Integration of factor analysis and Tsukamoto’s fuzzy logic method for quality control of credit provisions in rural banks
, Pages: 267-278 Yuyun Hidayat, Sukono, Predy Hartanto, Titi Purwandari, Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Moch Panji Agung Saputra and Jumadil Saputra PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Giving credit to debtors can pose a default risk. This risk arises because of an error in analyzing the credit risk rate of the debtor. Therefore, this study aims to design a framework for analyzing the credit risk rate of debtors so that the default risk can be reduced. This framework is created using the integration of factor analysis and Tsukamoto’s fuzzy logic method. This integration method can group many credit assessment variables into several decisive factors. In addition, the integration method can estimate credit risk rate firmly based on the α-predicate of each basic rule. This analytical framework is simulated on credit application data at a Rural Bank, in Indonesia. The simulation results show that there are three factors and one variable to measure the credit risk rate, namely: factor 1 represents repayment capacity, business length, working capital, and liquidity value; factor 2 represents the age and the difference between the granted and the proposed loan amount; factor 3 represents the stay length, character, and credit history; and one variable represents a dependent number. This research is expected to help credit institutions measure the credit risk rate in making credit decisions for prospective debtors. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.008 Keywords: Credit risk, Credit risk rate, Factor analysism Tsukamoto’s fuzzy logic method
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Open Access Original Article | |||
11. |
Exploring the quality of the higher educational institution website using data mining techniques
, Pages: 279-290 Mohammed Hameed Afif PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: The website of higher educational institutes is considered a vital communication channel to provide main resources to their stakeholders. It plays an important role in disseminating information about an institute to a variety of visitors at a time. Thus, the quality of an academic website requires special attention to respond to the users’ demands. This study aims to explore the quality of the PSAU website based on data mining techniques. The first step: was collecting opinions about the PSAU website using a survey. After that, data mining processes were used as descriptive and predictive models. The descriptive model was applied to describe and extract the major indicators of website quality. Besides, the predictive model was applied to create models for predicting the website quality level. More than one classification algorithm was used. Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine have given the best results in all performance indicators, and the achieved accuracy rate for both algorithms was 86% and 84% respectively. The results revealed that the overall quality level of the PSAU website is very good. The usability quality and content quality were very good. The service quality needs more attention. which indicated that the service level is inadequate and needs to be further enhanced. The results of the study should be useful to the deanship of Information Technology at PSAU, and website developers, in redesigning with high quality in terms of its usability, content, and service. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.007 Keywords: Website Quality, Data mining, Usability quality, Information Quality, Higher Education
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Open Access Original Article | |||
12. |
Time series prediction of novel coronavirus COVID-19 data in west Java using Gaussian processes and least median squared linear regression
, Pages: 291-296 Intan Nurma Yulita,Firman Ardiansyah, Aulia Siska and Ino Suryana PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: In 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic swept throughout the globe. The virus was first identified in Wuhan, China. By the time several months had gone by, this virus had spread to numerous locations throughout the world. Consequently, this virus has become a worldwide pandemic. Multiple efforts have been made to limit the transmission of this virus. A possible course of action is to lock down the territory. Unfortunately, this strategy wrecked the economy, worsening the terrible situation. The world health organization (WHO) would breathe a sigh of relief if there were to be no new cases. However, the government should explore employing data from the future in addition to the data it already has. Prediction of time series may be utilized for this purpose. This study indicated that the Gaussian processes method outperformed the least median squared linear regression method (LMSLR). Applying a Pearson VII-based global kernel produces MAE and RMSE values of 23.12 and 53.43, respectively. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.006 Keywords: Time series prediction, COVID-19, Gaussian Processes, Linear Regression, West Java
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Open Access Original Article | |||
13. |
A game theoretical approach for a green supply chain: A case study in hydraulic-pneumatic industry
, Pages: 297-314 Tuğçe Dabanlı Kurt and Derya Eren Akyol PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: As customers' orientation towards environmental products increases, manufacturers and other members of the supply chain are looking for ways to conduct their operations in an environmentally and cost-effective manner. To find a solution that compensates these requests, a game theoretical approach is developed for a two-stage green supply chain consisting of a supplier and a producer. A Stackelberg game model based on asymmetric information structure is developed to find the optimal lot sizes and raw material sales price for raw material supplier, and the product sales price and the environmental cost for the producer. The developed approach is illustrated on a real-world case study that deals with production and raw material procurement processes of a plastic plug and compared to a scenario in which no environmental expenditures exist. The effect of changes in the model has been observed by tuning some significant parameters with the experimental design approach. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.005 Keywords: Stackelberg Game, Green Manufacturing, Sustainability, Supply Chain Management, Vendor-Buyer Models
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Open Access Original Article | |||
14. |
An integrated inventory and distribution planning problem for the blood products: An application for the Turkish Red Crescent
, Pages: 315-332 Atıl Kurt, Meral Azizoğlu and Ferda Can Çetinkaya PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This study considers an integrated inventory planning and distribution problem based on an applied case at the Turkish Red Crescent’s Central Anatolian Regional Blood Center. We define two echelons, the first echelon being the regional blood center and the second echelon being the districts. The blood products are perishable so that the outdated products are disposed of at the end of their lives. We aim to minimize the cost of inventory keeping at both echelons, the shortage, and disposal amounts at the second echelon. We consider two distribution strategies: all deliveries are realized by the regional blood center (current implementation), and the deliveries are directly from the regional blood center or the other districts. We develop a mixed-integer linear programming model for each strategy. Our experimental results show that the decentralized strategy brings significant cost reductions over the centralized strategy. The mathematical model for the centralized distribution strategy can handle large-sized instances. On the other hand, the model for the decentralized distribution strategy is more complex and could not handle large-sized instances in our pre-specified termination limit of two hours. For large-sized instances of the decentralized distribution strategy, we design a decomposition-based heuristic algorithm that benefits from the optimal solutions of the original model and finds near-optimal solutions very quickly. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.004 Keywords: Inventory planning and distribution, Perishable products, Centralized and decentralized distribution strategies, Mixed-integer linear programming, Decomposition-based heuristic algorithm
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Open Access Original Article | |||
15. |
A proposed NCAAA-based approach to the self-evaluation of higher education programs for academic accreditation: A comparative study using TOPSIS
, Pages: 333-352 Ammar Y. Alqahtani, Anas A. Makki and Reda M. S. Abdulaal PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Quality standards must be fulfilled to satisfy a base level of quality. Despite using this idea as a foundation, evaluations of academic programs still rely on the evaluators' experiences and may differ from one evaluator to the next. As a result, more precise evaluation approaches must be created to ensure quality is accurately reflected. The main goal of this research paper is to propose and evaluate an approach to assessing higher educational programs using the Self-Evaluation Scale (SES) developed by the Saudi National Commission for Academic Accreditation and Evaluation (NCAAA). The proposed approach is a breakdown of the original performance criteria and standards into sub-criteria and elements to ensure the required data quality. The second goal is to compare the NCAAA's original performance criteria and the proposed evaluation sub-criteria. A comparison framework that uses the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is developed. Data from eight programs offered in a Middle Eastern University was used for the application and comparison between the two evaluation approaches. Results show that both approaches provide different quality performance rankings. The proposed approach demonstrated more conservative and accurate overall quality performance ratings, indicating that application decisions for accreditation are affected. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.003 Keywords: NCAAA, Educational programs, Quality standards, Self-evaluation, TOPSIS
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Open Access Original Article | |||
16. |
Gis and fuzzy logic approach for forest fire risk modeling in the Cajamarca region, Peru
, Pages: 353-368 Alex Vergara Anticona, Candy Ocaña Zúñiga, Alexandre Rosa dos Santos, Alexandre Simões Lorenzon and Plinio Antonio Guerra Filho PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Forest fires are a potential threat to life, as they contribute to reducing forest areas, impact on the services we expect from ecosystems, the health of the inhabitants is affected by smoke and the economic costs for the recovery of affected areas is high. The objective of the study is to apply fuzzy logic to model the risk of forest fires in the Cajamarca-Peru region, incorporating variables that represent biological, topographic, socioeconomic, and meteorological factors. The analysis was based on the acquisition, editing and rasterization of the database, application of fuzzy membership functions and image fuzzification, fuzzy superposition and spatial reclassification of forest fire risk. The results obtained show that 71.68% of the area is under very low or medium forest fire risk. However, 28.32% of the study area has a high to very high fire risk, which makes the occurrence of fires susceptible to the lack of rain and water in the soil. It was found that biological, topographic, and socioeconomic factors with their respective variables are directly influenced by meteorological factor variables such as temperature, rainfall and water availability. Fuzzy logic offered flexibility in modeling wildfire risk in the region, proving to be a useful tool for predicting and mapping wildfire risk. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.002 Keywords: Forest fires risk, Fuzzy logic, Membership function, Multi-criteria analysis, Spatial modeling, Vulnerability
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Open Access Original Article | |||
17. |
A modified generalized estimating equation approach for simultaneous spatial durbin panel model: Case study of economic growth in ASEAN countries
, Pages: 369-388 Alfira Mulya Astuti, Setiawan, Ismaini Zain and Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Purnomo PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: This article briefly explains the simultaneous spatial durbin panel (SSDP) model. The study of the SSDP model is substantial because it can explain the interaction between geographic units, is more informative, diverse, efficient, exhaustive, and accurate in reaching conclusions that influence the policy determination. This article’s intention is to derive a parameter estimation method from the SSDP model using a modified generalized estimating equation approach, which is then used to model economic growth in ASEAN nations. This article compares the SSDP model with rook contiguity, 2-nearest neighbors, and a customized spatial weighted matrix in relation to an independent, first-order autoregressive, exchangeable working correlation structure. To model economic growth in ASEAN countries, a customized weighted matrix with first-order autoregressive and exchangeable working correlations is chosen based on the CIC value. The parameter analysis outcomes indicate: 1) it is a significant spatial dependence among ASEAN countries; 2) it is a significant simultaneous interaction among the gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI); 3) GDP has a greater influence on FDI than FDI does on GDP; 4) The economic growth is directly affected by the labor force total; and 5) trade openness has a direct effect on FDI. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.1.001 Keywords: Economic growth, Spatial econometrics, Panel data, Simultaneous equation, Generalized estimating equation
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18. |
Multiple endemic disease risk modeling using a Bayesian spatiotemporal shared components model
, Pages: 389-398 I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Anna Chadidjah, Yudhie Andriyana, Gatot Riwi Setyanto, Enny Supartini and Farah Kristiani PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Traditionally, endemic diseases such as dengue, diarrhea, and tuberculosis are modeled separately, which leads to a limited understanding of current disease dynamics and an inaccurate evaluation of the parameters of the different models. In this study, we propose a joint spatiotemporal model to predict the risks of multiple endemic diseases and identify hotspots. The model includes spatial shared component random effects and a covariate for healthy behavior. The model was applied to the joint modeling of dengue, diarrhea, and tuberculosis in thirty districts in Bandung, Indonesia over a five-year period. Our findings show that the joint model was effective in understanding the characteristics of the diseases. One potential advantage of using shared component models is that they can identify diseases with spatial or temporal distribution patterns and consider shared risk factors that may be spatially correlated, such as climate. It is recommended to conduct exploratory analyses to determine the correlation between the risks of the diseases being studied and the reference disease before using this type of model. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.12.005 Keywords: Endemic Diseases, Bayesian, Shard Component, Spatiotemporal, INLA
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Open Access Original Article | |||
19. |
Investigating the collective value at risk model (CVaR) and its application on real data for life insurance
, Pages: 399-406 Muhammad Iqbal Al-Banna Ismail, Abdul Talib Bon, Sukono, Adhitya Ronnie Effendie and Jumadil Saputra PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Life insurance is designed to reduce the risk of financial loss due to unforeseen consequences related to the insured's death. In life insurance, the insurer provides death benefits as a claim when the insured suffers death. The claim is the compensation for a risk loss. Individual claim in one-period insurance is called aggregation claim, while aggregation claim is a collective risk. Collective risk is usually measured using a variance. However, the variance risk measure cannot often accommodate any event risk because there is a risk of claims beyond the amount of variance. Using the proposed method CVaR and confidence level are taken from α = 0.25% until 4%. This study found that the proposed method CVaR scored more fairly than Collective Risk. In conclusion, this study indicated that the collective risk model is just included using mean and variance without any confidence level. Therefore, only one result for the Collective Risk model, which automatically shows the model using mean, variance and standard deviation, could not accommodate all risk events. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.12.004 Keywords: Insurance, Risk, Claim, Collective Risk, Collective Value-at-Risk
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Open Access Original Article | |||
20. |
The effect of road types on severe road accidents in Peru
, Pages: 407-412 Rosita de los Ángeles Caisahuana Indigoyen, Sheylla Leydi Cuyutupac Osores, Stefany Andrea Curichimba Macedo and Ángel Narcizo Aquino Fernandez PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: It is not a secret that road accidents cause significant suffering. Those accidents can last from wounded to dead people, negatively impacting a country. A bunch of recent investigations tried to tie road accidents with the quality of roads. Therefore, in a country with a significant infrastructure gap, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between the different kinds of roads and the severity of car accidents. The current research examined such a relationship by employing the Multi logit regression. It was found that the significance of different car accidents will vary among the road types. Moreover, with the help of probability analysis, it was discovered that speeding, emergency services availability, and road security seemed to have a crucial impact on road accidents. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.12.003 Keywords: Road accidents, Multi-logit, Peruvian roads, Accident types, Road classification
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Open Access Original Article | |||
21. |
Revolution in military affairs (RMA) by Indonesian armed forces towards competitive advantage
, Pages: 413-430 Arief Rachman, Amarulla Octavian, Ahmad Irdham, Yusuf Ali, I. N. Putra and A.K. Susilo PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: The dynamics of the conflict in the South China Sea (SCS) have begun to enter a new chapter. Currently, the South China Sea (SCS) is a flashpoint in the Asia Pacific region. This study aims to provide an analysis of the concept of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) strategy by the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) toward Competitive Advantage in the South China Sea region. This study employed an analytical approach with a qualitative sequence exploratory method supported by some quantitative data. PEST (Political, Economy, Socio-cultural, Technology) analysis and SWOT analysis methods were used to support the study. Furthermore, this study also utilized an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method approach to provide strategic value and sensitivity analysis as a strategy scenario analysis toward competitive advantage. Based on the results of the research analysis, a strategy under the development of Indonesian Armed Forces capabilities towards a competitive advantage in the South China Sea was obtained, namely the WO strategy which consists of 6 substrate aspects with eight subfactors, namely the combination of all components and strengths in handling security disturbances in the South China Sea (0.162), increased competence of human resources (0.159); development of integrated defense forces and capabilities (0.147), protection of information systems and state secrets (0.145), development of defense facilities and infrastructure (0.109), increasing the capacity and capability of modernizing intelligence technology (0.093), utilization and capacity building of the national defense industry (0.089), deployment of Indonesian Armed Forces troops in the South China Sea (0.075). This study is expected to contribute to the strategy for handling conflicts in the South China Sea and provide strategic steps in increasing capabilities on competitive advantage. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.12.002 Keywords: Revolution in Military Affair (RMA), Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI), Competitive Advantage, SWOT, Strategic Concept, South China Sea (SCS), Decision Making
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22. |
Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021
, Pages: 431-440 Lia Sheyla Quispe-Adauto, Sheyla Vilcas-Mamani and Wagner Vicente-Ramos PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of public debt sustainability on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 and establish a new optimal debt level that does not affect Peru's economic growth. The general method used to determine this effect was the hypothetical deductive method with a non-experimental and longitudinal trend design, because the data to be analyzed are variations that have occurred over time; the VAR (vector autoregressive) model was used as a specific method, because the evidence was insufficient to consider the simultaneity between the reactions of the variables to propose an SVAR model. Data were collected from economic portals such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), as well as the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). The estimated sample size was 88 observations representing all quarters from 2000 to 2021. As a result of the econometric regression, the impact of the level of public debt on economic growth is positive, since a one-unit increase in the percentage of public debt will increase the variation of GDP by almost 1.1%. Regarding the debt level forecast and according to the projection made, it was determined that the new debt level that does not affect the sustainability of public finances or the long-term economic growth of the Peruvian economy should be 38% of GDP. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.12.001 Keywords: Economic growth, Public debt, Econometrics, Sustainability
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Design of a hybridization between Tabu search and PAES algorithms to solve a multi-depot, multi-product green vehicle routing problem
, Pages: 441-456 Juan Sebastián Azuero-Ortiz, María Alejandr Gaviria-Hernández, Vicky Magnolia Jiménez-Rodríguez, Edgar José Vale-Santiago and Eliana María González-Neira PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: Vehicle routing problem (VRP) is a classic problem studied in logistic. One of the most important variations within this problem is called Green Vehicle Routing Problem (GVRP), in which environmental aspects are considered when designing product delivery routes. This variant arises due to the high levels of pollution produced by transport vehicles, so it is a variation whose study represents a vital impact nowadays. This project will consider a GVRP and will be developed considering the characteristics of multi-depot (MDVRP) and multi-product (MPVRP) to minimize the costs of assignation of vehicles and CO2 emissions. To solve the problem, this project proposes a hybridization between the classic tabu search (TS) metaheuristic and the PAES algorithm (TS+PAES) to generate the Pareto frontier of both objectives. An integer mixed linear programming model is formulated and developed for each objective function separately to have an optimal point of comparison for the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Also, the TS+PAES algorithm is compared to the nearest neighbor algorithm for large instances. Two computational experiments were carried out, one for small and the other one for large instances. The experiment for small instances showed that the GAP of each extreme of the frontier compared to the MILP model is on average 0.73%. For large instances, the metaheuristic improves in 0.1% the results presented by the MILP model showing that the metaheuristic provides closer near-optimal solutions in less computational time. Besides, the metaheuristic, in comparison with the nearest neighborhood heuristic, improves in 44.21% the results of emissions and in 3.88% the costs. All these results demonstrate the effectiveness of the metaheuristic. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.11.004 Keywords: Green VRP, Multi-depot, Multi-product, Tabu search, PAES
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Analytical evaluation of big data applications in E-commerce: A mixed method approach
, Pages: 457-476 Ali Mohammadi, Pouya Ahadi, Ali Fozooni, Amirhossein Farzadi and Khatereh Ahadi PDF (416 K) |
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Abstract: E-commerce is one of the industries most affected by big data, from collection to analytics in the highly competitive market. Previous research on big data analytics in E-commerce focused only on particular applications, and there is still a gap in presenting a framework to evaluate big data applications from a challenges-values point of view. This study employs a three-phase methodology to evaluate big data applications in E-commerce with respect to big data challenges and values using a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making technique that combines BWM and fuzzy TOPSIS. The results showed process challenge and the strategic value obtained the highest weight for challenges and values criteria. Financial fraud detection is relatively the most challenging, and online review analytics is the most valuable application of big data in E-commerce among identified applications. Evaluating big data applications based on cost and benefit criteria is practical for E-commerce managers and experts to make decisions on implementation priorities to overcome the challenges and make the most of values. Moreover, the proposed approach is not only limited to big data analytics in E-commerce and can also be applied in other industries to evaluate emerging technology applications. DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.11.003 Keywords: Big Data Analytics, Big data applications, E-commerce, BWM, Fuzzy Topsis, MCDM
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