Project Risk Management contains processes ranging from planning to control. It is applied to identify risks, analyze them, and design responses to change the occurrence rate and/or the effect of project risks. It is important for project managers to analyze the effects of the risks in projects and also consider project risks in their decisions. If project risks are not addressed during the risk management process, issues such as schedule delays, cost overruns, and even project failure may occur. This paper aims to introduce a Markov method to integrate project risk analysis and risk response planning. This method is applied to forecast the following status of the project when limited information about the project is available. Moreover, earned value management (EVM) methods were used to include various types of project risks through the project lifecycle. The model also offers the capability to choose the most effective risk response for managing project risks through the application of the Markov decision process (MDP). Eventually, we introduce a case study to demonstrate functionality and effectiveness of the presented approach. Solving the model allows for identifying the best set of risk response strategies tailored to each specific project state. The computational results illustrate that the current state of the project has a significant impact in the process of risk response planning. Since uncertainty is the inherent characteristic of projects, the use of the project’s current state is more reliable than the previous status of projects, and the Markov method is applied in this research because it uses the current state for its modelling. Using this method, managers can predict the future state of projects and find the best response in each status of projects.

This study aims to provide a comprehensive model to assist investors in strategic decision-making amid market uncertainty. Global economic uncertainty characterized by cycles of stagflation and recession has recurred in history and is expected to recur until 2025. This condition encourages the importance of investment strategies that can protect asset values from economic pressures. This study uses a quantitative approach with forecasting methods and risk analysis based on time series data. The data used are daily gold and silver prices from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in USD, collected over a two-year period, namely from January 3, 2023 to January 4, 2025. The data is secondary and obtained from the official LBMA website. The research stages begin with a literature study to understand relevant concepts and methods, followed by data collection, and continued with data preprocessing. The preprocessing stages include checking for outliers, handling missing values using the series mean method, and merging data for temporal consistency. For the forecasting process, the Fuzzy Time Series–Markov Chain method is used, which consists of several steps: the formation of universe and interval sets using the Sturges formula, the definition of fuzzy sets, the fuzzification process, the formation of Fuzzy Logical Relationships (FLR) and Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups (FLRG), and the preparation of transition probability matrices. The forecasting results are obtained through the defuzzification process, which are then evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicator to assess the accuracy of the model. Risk analysis is carried out using the Value at Risk (VaR) approach using the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) method and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The entire analysis process is carried out using Microsoft Excel and RStudio software to ensure accuracy and efficiency in data processing and statistical modeling. This study has succeeded in developing a hybrid Fuzzy Time Series–Markov Chain model to forecast precious metal prices, especially gold and silver, with a very high level of accuracy. Based on an evaluation of various training and testing data proportions, the best model was obtained at a 95:5 ratio, with MAPE values of 0.66% for gold and 1.18% for silver in the training data, and 0.55% and 0.94% in the testing data. These results indicate that the model is able to effectively capture historical price patterns and provide predictions close to the actual value.

The theory of constraints is an approach for production planning and control, which emphasizes on the constraints in the system to increase throughput. The theory of constraints is often referred to as Drum-Buffer-Rope developed originally by Goldratt. Drum-Buffer-Rope uses the drum or constraint to create a schedule based on the finite capacity of the first bottleneck. Because of complexity of the job shop environment, Drum-Buffer-Rope material flow management has very little attention to job shop environment. The objective of this paper is to apply the Drum-Buffer-Rope technique in the job shop environment using a Markov chain analysis to compare traditional method with Drum-Buffer-Rope. Four measurement parameters were considered and the result showed the advantage of Drum-Buffer-Rope approach compared with traditional one.