Bali is a world tourist destination that is famous for having various types of interesting maritime tourism, including mangrove areas which are typical of equatorial regions. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can predict the sustainability of ecotourism in the mangrove area in Bali based on the approach of empowering local potential and empowering the community. Data analysis was carried out using Bayesian Network analysis, where input was based on the results of the FGD. The results show high probability of realizing the sustainability of ecotourism, where the most influential variables are community participation and local product developers or mangrove-based products. In addition, the condition of the mangrove forest also needs attention, considering that the sustainability of mangrove ecotourism is very sensitive to changes in the condition of the mangrove forest. The three main variables have reflected the combination of the three elements of sustainability, namely people-social (community participation), planet-environment (mangrove forest condition), and profit-economic (developing of mangrove-based products). Mangrove ecotourism development in Bali should be focused on increasing community participation and the development of mangrove-based products.