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Management Science Letters

ISSN 1923-9343 (Online) - ISSN 1923-9335 (Print)
Quarterly Publication
Volume 10 Issue 5 pp. 1051-1060 , 2020

The impact of exchange rate on inflation and economic growth in Vietnam Pages 1051-1060 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Thanh Tung Hoang, Van Anh Nguyen Thi, Hoang Dinh Minh

DOI: 10.5267/j.msl.2019.11.004

Keywords: Exchange rate, Vector regression model, VAR model, Growth, Inflation, Macro factors, Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract: In this article, the research team uses the VAR self-regression vector model to evaluate the impact of exchange rates on inflation and economic growth in Vietnam over the period 2005-2018. With six endogenous variables included in the VAR model: bilateral real exchange rate (Er), money supply (M2), exports (X), imports (IM), GDP at 2010 comparative prices (GDPR), the consumer price index (CPI) and the two exogenous variables, international price (Pw) and US Federal Reserve interest rate (Ifed), the research team examines the impact of exchange rates on endogenous variables in the model and considers the reaction of inflation and economic growth on various shocks. Based on the quantitative results, the research team will recommend some discus-sions to contribute for the improvement of Vietnam's macro environment, trade balance, inflation control, and economic growth support; implementing the goal of macroeconomic stability to suit the period of international economic integration and improving national competitiveness.

How to cite this paper
Hoang, T., Thi, V & Minh, H. (2020). The impact of exchange rate on inflation and economic growth in Vietnam.Management Science Letters , 10(5), 1051-1060.

Refrences
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Huyen, T. T. T. (2018). Exchange rate policy and macroeconomic stability in Vietnam. VNU Journal of Science: Econom-ics and Business, 34(2), 1-16
International Monetary Fund (2006). Vietnam: Statistical Appendix. IMF Country Report No. 06/52
International Monetary Fund (2018). Vietnam: Statistical Appendix. IMF Country Report No. 18/207
Ito, T., & Sato, K. (2008). Exchange rate changes and inflation in post‐crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the exchange rate pass‐through. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(7), 1407-1438.
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Nhung, N. C., & Huyen, T. T. T. (2017). Exchange rate pass-through into Vietnamese import prices by industries and by countries. International Business Management, 11(11), 1834-1843.
Minh,V. V. (2009). Exchange rate pass-through and its implications for inflation in Vietnam. Vietnam Development Fo-rum, Working Paper 0902.
Trang, L.T. (2017). Exchange rate policy boosts Vietnam's exports, Ph.D. Thesis at Trade University. National Library of Vietnam
Tung, H.T., & Van Anh, N.T (2018). Discussion on the Impact of Money Policy to Growth and Inflation in Vietnam in the Period 2008 – 2017 from the Results of the VAR Model. Baasana International Conference 2018 in Vietnam, Baasana Vietnam Chapter, Foreign Trade University, Vol. 8, Issue. FTU -1.
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Journal: Management Science Letters | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 5 | Views: 7975 | Reviews: 0

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