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Management Science Letters

ISSN 1923-9343 (Online) - ISSN 1923-9335 (Print)
Quarterly Publication
Volume 10 Issue 5 pp. 1001-1010 , 2020

Forecasting domestic credit growth based on ARIMA model: Evidence from Vietnam and China Pages 1001-1010 Right click to download the paper Download PDF

Authors: Doan Van Dinh

DOI: 10.5267/j.msl.2019.11.010

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Credit Growth, domestic credit, Moving average

Abstract: Credit is an economic category and is also a product of the commodity economy, which exists through many socio-economic forms to promote economic growth. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to analyst, compare and forecast domestic credit growth in Vietnam's and China's economy. Thus, the paper is applied by a method of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. This model is fitted to time series data both to better understand the data and to forecast future points in the series. Hereby, the methodology is selected by Vietnam's bestfit model ARIMA (2,3,1) and China's best-fit model ARIMA (2,3,5). Analytical data are collected from 1996 to 2017, the sample fitted the model and is statistically significant. The result show the forecast result for next years. The Vietnamese and Chinese economy are the open economies and have domestic credit greatly contributed to economic growth. These results are the basis for policymakers to have a general view and define the impact of domestic credit growth on GDP between the two countries.

How to cite this paper
Dinh, D. (2020). Forecasting domestic credit growth based on ARIMA model: Evidence from Vietnam and China.Management Science Letters , 10(5), 1001-1010.

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Journal: Management Science Letters | Year: 2020 | Volume: 10 | Issue: 5 | Views: 3804 | Reviews: 0

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