Predicting project duration and cost, and selecting the best action plan using statistical methods for earned value management

Soltan, S.; Ashrafi, M.

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Journal of Project Management

ISSN 2371-8374 (Online) - ISSN 2371-8366 (Print) Quarterly Publication Volume 5 Issue 3 pp. 157-166 , 2020

Predicting project duration and cost, and selecting the best action plan using statistical methods for earned value management Pages 157-166 Download PDF

Authors: Sajad Soltan, Maryam Ashrafi

DOI: 10.5267/j.jpm.2020.3.002

Keywords: Project management, Earned value management, Control charts, Action plan selection, Duration forecasting, Cost forecasting, Empirical database

Abstract: Nowadays, with the increasing number of projects in organizations, managers are enthusiastic about managing and controlling projects, and as projects become more complex and cause unforeseen risks, project management becomes even more critical. Using the earned value management method to control the current status of projects, and predicting the future status of projects has had many advantages. Representing the status of the project, and predicting the project performance by various indicators are some features of this method. As these indicators are deterministic, the risk of the prediction increases when the number of risks goes up in a project. Therefore, statistical methods can be employed to estimate the statistical distribution of risks and notably boost predicting accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to present a method for predicting project duration and cost of the project and selecting the best action plan. Control charts are used along with the earned value management method to increase accuracy. This model also provides the possibility of selecting the best action plan to improve project performance. Moreover, this method can be applied in each project phase separately. Finally, a case study is used to investigate the validity of the proposed method.

How to cite this paper

 Soltan, S & Ashrafi, M. (2020). Predicting project duration and cost, and selecting the best action plan using statistical methods for earned value management.Journal of Project Management, 5(3), 157-166.

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