How to cite this paper
Jaya, I., Chadidjah, A., Andriyana, Y., Kristiani, F & Fauziah, A. (2023). Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling for forecasting diarrhea risk among children under 5 in Bandung city, Indonesia.International Journal of Data and Network Science, 7(4), 1551-1562.
Refrences
Alebel, A., Tesema, C., Temesgen, B., Gebrie, A., Petrucka, P., & Kibret, G. (2018). Prevalence and determinants of diarrhea among under-five children in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS ONE, 13(6), e019968.
Amegbor, P., & Addae, A. (2023). Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of global development indicators on child mortality. International Journal of Health Geographics, 22(9), 1-15.
Assad, D., Cara, J., & Ortega-Mier , M. (2023). Comparing Short-Term Univariate and Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting Models in Infectious Disease Outbreak. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 85(9), 1-51.
Bandung HD (2018) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2017. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2019) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2018. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2020) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2019. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2021) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2020. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2022) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2021. Bandung Government, Bandung
Barnes, G., Uren, E., Stevens, K., & Bishop, R. (1998). Etiology of Acute Gastroenteritis in Hospitalized Children in Melbourne, Australia, from April 1980 to March 1993. Journal of Clinical Microbiology, 36(1), 133–138.
Bivand, R., Gómez-Rubio, V., & Rue, H. (2015). Spatial data analysis with R-INLA with some extensions. Journal of Statistical Software January, 63(20), 1-31.
Blangiardo, M., & Cameletti, M. (2015). Spatial and Spatio-temporal Bayesian Models with R-INLA. Chennai: John Wiley & Sons.
Fang, X., Liu, W., Ai, J., He, M., Wu, Y., Shi, Y., . . . Bao , C. (2020). Forecasting incidence of infectious diarrhea using random forest in Jiangsu Province, China. BMC Infectious Diseases, 20(222), 1-8.
George, C., Perin, J., Calani, K., Norman, W., Perry, H., Davis Jr, T., & Lindquist, E. (2014). Risk Factors for Diarrhea in Children under Five Years of Age Residing in Peri-urban Communities in Cochabamba, Bolivia. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 91(6), 1190–1196.
Ghosh, K., Chakraborty, A., & SenGupta, S. (2023). Identifying spatial clustering of diarrhoea among children under 5 years across 707 districts in India: a cross sectional study. BMC Pediatrics, 23(272), 1-15.
Jaya, I., & Folmer, H. (2020). Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping of relative dengue disease risk in Bandung, Indonesia. Journal of Geographical Systems, 22, 105–142.
Jaya, I., & Folmer, H. (2021). Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting and mapping of COVID-19 risk with application to West Java Province, Indonesia. Journal of Regional Science, 64(1), 849-881.
Jaya, I., Folmer, H., & Lundberg, J. (2022). A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden. The Annals of Regional Science, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01191-1
Jaya, I., Ruchjana, B., Andriyana, Y., & Agata, R. (2019). Clustering with spatial constraints: The case of diarrhea in Bandung city, Indonesia. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1397, 012068.
Knorr, H. L. (2000). Bayesian Modeling of inseparable space-time variation in disease risk. Statistics in Medicine, 19(17-18), 2555-2567.
Kotloff, K., Platts-Mills , J., Nasrin, D., Roose, A., Blackwelder, W., & Levine, M. (2017). Global burden of diarrheal diseases among children in developing countries: Incidence, etiology, and insights from new molecular diagnostic techniques. Vaccine, 35(49), 6783-6789.
Lawson, A. (2010). Hotspot detection and clustering: ways and means. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 17, 231–245.
Lawson, A., & Rotejanaprasert, C. (2014). Childhood Brain Cancer in Florida: A Bayesian Clustering Approach. Statistics and Public Policy, 1(1), 99-107.
Lee, J., Han, G., Fulp, W., & Giuliano, A. (2012). Analysis of overdispersed count data: application to the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) Study. Epidemiology & Infection, 140(6), 1087–1094.
Leroux, B., Lei, X., & Breslow, N. (1999). Estimation of disease rates in small areas: a new mixed model for spatial dependence. In M. Halloran, & D. Berry, Statistical Models in Epidemiology, the Environment and Clinical Trials (pp. 135–178). New York: Springer-Verlag.
Li, R., Lai, Y., Feng, C., Dev, R., Wang, Y., & Hao, Y. (2020). Diarrhea in Under Five Year-old Children in Nepal: A Spatiotemporal Analysis Based on Demographic and Health Survey Data. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(2140), 1-17.
Ministry of Health RI, (2019). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia Tahun 2018. Jakarta: Ministry of Health RI
Mohebbi, M., Wolfe, R., & Forbes, A. (2014). Disease Mapping and Regression with Count Data in the Presence of Overdispersion and Spatial Autocorrelation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11, 883-902.
Ngesa, O., Mwambi, H., & Achia, T. (2014). Bayesian Spatial Semi-Parametric Modeling of HIV Variation in Kenya. PLoS ONE, 9(7), 1-11.
Ntirampeba, D., Neema, I., & Kazembe, L. (2018). Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of disease for spatially misaligned data: An application on measles incidence data in Namibia from 2005-2014. PLoS ONE, 13(9), e0201700.
Otsuka, Y., Agestika, L., Widyarani, Sintawardani, N., & Yamauchi, T. (2019). Risk Factors for Undernutrition and Diarrhea Prevalence in an Urban Slum in Indonesia: Focus on Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 100(3), 727–732.
Paul, P. (2020). Socio-demographic and environmental factors associated with diarrhoeal disease among children under five in India. BMC Public Health, 20(1886), 1-11.
Pena, D., & SaNchez , I. (2007). Measuring The Advantages Of Multivariate Vs. Univariate Forecasts. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 28(6), 886-906.
Rahayu, A., Darmawan, G., & Jaya, I. (2023). Calculation of the Risk Index for Diarrhea, ISPA, and Pneumonia in Toddlers in the City of Bandung Using Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis. Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR), 2(4), 285 - 300.
Raza, O., Mansournia, M., Foroushani, A., & Holakouie-Naieni, K. (2020). Exploring spatial dependencies in the prevalence of childhood diarrhea in Mozambique using global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation. Medical Journal of The Islamic Republic of Iran, 34(59), 1-7.
Rue, H., Martino, S., & Chopin, N. (2009). Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 71(2), 319–392.
Simpson, D., Rue, H., Riebler, A., Martins, T., & Sørbye, S. (2017). Penalising Model Component Complexity: A Principled, Practical Approach to Constructing Priors. Statistical Science, 32(1), 1–28.
Spiegelhalter, D., Best, N., Carlin, B., & Linde , A. (2002). Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Socieity Statistical Methodlogy B, 64(4), 583-639.
Sudasman, F., Bachtiar, A., Laelasari, E., & Ciptaningtyas, R. (2019). Factors Associated With The Risk Of Diarrhea In Children Under Five In Bandung, West Java. International Conference on Public Health (pp. 1-5). Surabaya: Masters Program in Public Health, Graduate School, Universitas Sebelas Maret.
Ugarte, M. D., Adin, A., Goicoa, T., & Militino, A. F. (2014). On fitting spatio-temporal disease mapping models using approximate Bayesian inference. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 23(6), 507–530. doi:10.1177/0962280214527528
Ugarte, M., Goicoa, T., Etxeberria, J., & Militino, A. (2012). Projections of cancer mortality risks using spatio-temporal P-spline models. Stat Methods Med Res, 21(5), 545-560.
Walker, C., Rudan, I., Liu, L., Nair, H., Theodoratou, E., Bhutta, Z., . . . Black, R. (2013). Global burden of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea. Thelancet, 381, 1405-1416.
Wang, X., Ryan, Y., & Faraway, J. (2018). Bayesian Regression Modeling with INLA. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Watanabe, S. (2010). Asymptotic Equivalence of Bayes Cross Validation and Widely Applicable Information Criterion in Singular Learning Theory. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11, 3571-3594.
WHO. (2017). Diarrhoeal disease. Retrieved from WHO: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diarrhoeal-disease#:~:text=five%20years%20old.-,Diarrhoeal%20disease%20is%20the%20second%20leading%20cause%20of%20death%20in,that%20are%20necessary%20for%20survival. Accessed 1 July 2023
Amegbor, P., & Addae, A. (2023). Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of global development indicators on child mortality. International Journal of Health Geographics, 22(9), 1-15.
Assad, D., Cara, J., & Ortega-Mier , M. (2023). Comparing Short-Term Univariate and Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting Models in Infectious Disease Outbreak. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 85(9), 1-51.
Bandung HD (2018) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2017. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2019) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2018. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2020) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2019. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2021) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2020. Bandung Government, Bandung
Bandung HD (2022) Health profile of Bandung municipality in 2021. Bandung Government, Bandung
Barnes, G., Uren, E., Stevens, K., & Bishop, R. (1998). Etiology of Acute Gastroenteritis in Hospitalized Children in Melbourne, Australia, from April 1980 to March 1993. Journal of Clinical Microbiology, 36(1), 133–138.
Bivand, R., Gómez-Rubio, V., & Rue, H. (2015). Spatial data analysis with R-INLA with some extensions. Journal of Statistical Software January, 63(20), 1-31.
Blangiardo, M., & Cameletti, M. (2015). Spatial and Spatio-temporal Bayesian Models with R-INLA. Chennai: John Wiley & Sons.
Fang, X., Liu, W., Ai, J., He, M., Wu, Y., Shi, Y., . . . Bao , C. (2020). Forecasting incidence of infectious diarrhea using random forest in Jiangsu Province, China. BMC Infectious Diseases, 20(222), 1-8.
George, C., Perin, J., Calani, K., Norman, W., Perry, H., Davis Jr, T., & Lindquist, E. (2014). Risk Factors for Diarrhea in Children under Five Years of Age Residing in Peri-urban Communities in Cochabamba, Bolivia. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 91(6), 1190–1196.
Ghosh, K., Chakraborty, A., & SenGupta, S. (2023). Identifying spatial clustering of diarrhoea among children under 5 years across 707 districts in India: a cross sectional study. BMC Pediatrics, 23(272), 1-15.
Jaya, I., & Folmer, H. (2020). Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping of relative dengue disease risk in Bandung, Indonesia. Journal of Geographical Systems, 22, 105–142.
Jaya, I., & Folmer, H. (2021). Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting and mapping of COVID-19 risk with application to West Java Province, Indonesia. Journal of Regional Science, 64(1), 849-881.
Jaya, I., Folmer, H., & Lundberg, J. (2022). A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden. The Annals of Regional Science, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01191-1
Jaya, I., Ruchjana, B., Andriyana, Y., & Agata, R. (2019). Clustering with spatial constraints: The case of diarrhea in Bandung city, Indonesia. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1397, 012068.
Knorr, H. L. (2000). Bayesian Modeling of inseparable space-time variation in disease risk. Statistics in Medicine, 19(17-18), 2555-2567.
Kotloff, K., Platts-Mills , J., Nasrin, D., Roose, A., Blackwelder, W., & Levine, M. (2017). Global burden of diarrheal diseases among children in developing countries: Incidence, etiology, and insights from new molecular diagnostic techniques. Vaccine, 35(49), 6783-6789.
Lawson, A. (2010). Hotspot detection and clustering: ways and means. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 17, 231–245.
Lawson, A., & Rotejanaprasert, C. (2014). Childhood Brain Cancer in Florida: A Bayesian Clustering Approach. Statistics and Public Policy, 1(1), 99-107.
Lee, J., Han, G., Fulp, W., & Giuliano, A. (2012). Analysis of overdispersed count data: application to the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) Study. Epidemiology & Infection, 140(6), 1087–1094.
Leroux, B., Lei, X., & Breslow, N. (1999). Estimation of disease rates in small areas: a new mixed model for spatial dependence. In M. Halloran, & D. Berry, Statistical Models in Epidemiology, the Environment and Clinical Trials (pp. 135–178). New York: Springer-Verlag.
Li, R., Lai, Y., Feng, C., Dev, R., Wang, Y., & Hao, Y. (2020). Diarrhea in Under Five Year-old Children in Nepal: A Spatiotemporal Analysis Based on Demographic and Health Survey Data. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(2140), 1-17.
Ministry of Health RI, (2019). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia Tahun 2018. Jakarta: Ministry of Health RI
Mohebbi, M., Wolfe, R., & Forbes, A. (2014). Disease Mapping and Regression with Count Data in the Presence of Overdispersion and Spatial Autocorrelation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11, 883-902.
Ngesa, O., Mwambi, H., & Achia, T. (2014). Bayesian Spatial Semi-Parametric Modeling of HIV Variation in Kenya. PLoS ONE, 9(7), 1-11.
Ntirampeba, D., Neema, I., & Kazembe, L. (2018). Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of disease for spatially misaligned data: An application on measles incidence data in Namibia from 2005-2014. PLoS ONE, 13(9), e0201700.
Otsuka, Y., Agestika, L., Widyarani, Sintawardani, N., & Yamauchi, T. (2019). Risk Factors for Undernutrition and Diarrhea Prevalence in an Urban Slum in Indonesia: Focus on Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 100(3), 727–732.
Paul, P. (2020). Socio-demographic and environmental factors associated with diarrhoeal disease among children under five in India. BMC Public Health, 20(1886), 1-11.
Pena, D., & SaNchez , I. (2007). Measuring The Advantages Of Multivariate Vs. Univariate Forecasts. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 28(6), 886-906.
Rahayu, A., Darmawan, G., & Jaya, I. (2023). Calculation of the Risk Index for Diarrhea, ISPA, and Pneumonia in Toddlers in the City of Bandung Using Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis. Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR), 2(4), 285 - 300.
Raza, O., Mansournia, M., Foroushani, A., & Holakouie-Naieni, K. (2020). Exploring spatial dependencies in the prevalence of childhood diarrhea in Mozambique using global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation. Medical Journal of The Islamic Republic of Iran, 34(59), 1-7.
Rue, H., Martino, S., & Chopin, N. (2009). Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 71(2), 319–392.
Simpson, D., Rue, H., Riebler, A., Martins, T., & Sørbye, S. (2017). Penalising Model Component Complexity: A Principled, Practical Approach to Constructing Priors. Statistical Science, 32(1), 1–28.
Spiegelhalter, D., Best, N., Carlin, B., & Linde , A. (2002). Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Socieity Statistical Methodlogy B, 64(4), 583-639.
Sudasman, F., Bachtiar, A., Laelasari, E., & Ciptaningtyas, R. (2019). Factors Associated With The Risk Of Diarrhea In Children Under Five In Bandung, West Java. International Conference on Public Health (pp. 1-5). Surabaya: Masters Program in Public Health, Graduate School, Universitas Sebelas Maret.
Ugarte, M. D., Adin, A., Goicoa, T., & Militino, A. F. (2014). On fitting spatio-temporal disease mapping models using approximate Bayesian inference. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 23(6), 507–530. doi:10.1177/0962280214527528
Ugarte, M., Goicoa, T., Etxeberria, J., & Militino, A. (2012). Projections of cancer mortality risks using spatio-temporal P-spline models. Stat Methods Med Res, 21(5), 545-560.
Walker, C., Rudan, I., Liu, L., Nair, H., Theodoratou, E., Bhutta, Z., . . . Black, R. (2013). Global burden of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea. Thelancet, 381, 1405-1416.
Wang, X., Ryan, Y., & Faraway, J. (2018). Bayesian Regression Modeling with INLA. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Watanabe, S. (2010). Asymptotic Equivalence of Bayes Cross Validation and Widely Applicable Information Criterion in Singular Learning Theory. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11, 3571-3594.
WHO. (2017). Diarrhoeal disease. Retrieved from WHO: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diarrhoeal-disease#:~:text=five%20years%20old.-,Diarrhoeal%20disease%20is%20the%20second%20leading%20cause%20of%20death%20in,that%20are%20necessary%20for%20survival. Accessed 1 July 2023