East Timor is one of the youngest nations in the world, having been established in 2002. The majority of East Timor's population works in the agricultural sector, yet the mining sector (oil and gas) plays a dominant role in contributing to the country's GDP. The management of oil revenue in East Timor is adapted from the model implemented in Norway, known as Norway Plus. Aware that oil and gas resources must be supported by other economic sectors in the long term, this study aims to analyze potential scenarios for developing East Timor's key economic sectors, as well as to propose potential policy pathways. The research approach uses prospective methods (SMIC-Prob analysis and MULTIPOL), which are suitable for policy formulation due to their future-oriented nature. Data collection was conducted through Focus Group Discussions (FGD) involving experts from both the government and academia. The results from the SMIC-Prob analysis show that the oil and gas sector indeed has the highest probability. However, in the long term, the agricultural sector emerges as a crucial alternative. Furthermore, the MULTIPOL analysis indicates that in scenarios focusing on the development of non-oil and gas sectors, policies should prioritize the development of local economic sectors. The government of East Timor is recommended to seriously develop non-oil and gas sectors by utilizing revenue from oil and gas extraction. Additionally, environmental governance is also a critical consideration to achieve sustainable, inclusive development.

Bali is a world tourist destination that is famous for having various types of interesting maritime tourism, including mangrove areas which are typical of equatorial regions. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can predict the sustainability of ecotourism in the mangrove area in Bali based on the approach of empowering local potential and empowering the community. Data analysis was carried out using Bayesian Network analysis, where input was based on the results of the FGD. The results show high probability of realizing the sustainability of ecotourism, where the most influential variables are community participation and local product developers or mangrove-based products. In addition, the condition of the mangrove forest also needs attention, considering that the sustainability of mangrove ecotourism is very sensitive to changes in the condition of the mangrove forest. The three main variables have reflected the combination of the three elements of sustainability, namely people-social (community participation), planet-environment (mangrove forest condition), and profit-economic (developing of mangrove-based products). Mangrove ecotourism development in Bali should be focused on increasing community participation and the development of mangrove-based products.