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latent Dirichlet allocation method-based nowcasting approach for prediction of silver price
, Pages: 131-152 Selin Özge Öndin and Tarık Küçükdeniz PDF (650K) |
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Abstract: Silver is a metal that offers significant value to both investors and companies. The purpose of this study is to make an estimation of the price of silver. While making this estimation, it is planned to include the frequency of searches on Google Trends for the words that affect the silver price. Thus, it is aimed to obtain a more accurate estimate. First, using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method, the keywords to be analyzed in Google Trends were collected from various articles on the Internet. Mining data from Google Trends combined with the information obtained by LDA is the new approach this study took, to predict the price of silver. No study has been found in the literature that has adopted this approach to estimate the price of silver. The estimation was carried out with Random Forest Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, Support Vector Machine, Regression Trees and Artificial Neural Networks methods. In addition, ARIMA, which is one of the traditional methods that is widely used in time series analysis, was also used to benchmark the accuracy of the methodology. The best MSE ratio was obtained as 0,000227131 ± 0.0000235205 by the Regression Trees method. This score indicates that it would be a valid technique to estimate the price of "Silver" by using Google Trends data using the LDA method. DOI: 10.5267/j.ac.2023.3.004 Keywords: Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, Silver, Commodities, Machine Learning, Google Trends
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Does board structure influence firm disclosure? Evidence from selected sub-Saharan Africa countries
, Pages: 153-168 Gibson Munisi PDF (650K) |
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Abstract: This study examines the effects of board structure on information disclosure in annual reports of the listed firms in Sub-Saharan Africa countries' stock exchanges. Findings indicate that board size is positive and significantly related to information disclosure. However, findings indicate that the percentage of outside directors is not significantly related to information disclosure. This study contributes to corporate governance literature, especially in regard to the association between attributes of board structure and information disclosure. Findings of this study provide some practical benefits to regulators and policymakers in understanding the nexus between board structure and information disclosure in Sub-Saharan Africa. This would help policymakers and regulators to formulate policies and regulations with regards to board structure and good corporate governance practices, specifically those related to information disclosure. DOI: 10.5267/j.ac.2023.3.003 Keywords: Board Structure, Board size, Outside directors, Disclosure, Sub-Saharan Africa
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Mixed reactions of Africa regional stock markets to COVID-19 pandemic: events study analysis
, Pages: 169-182 Samuel Kortu Nelson, Richard Danquah, Ishmael Arhin, Lydia Osarfo Achaa, Peter Davis Sumo and Chiamaka Nneoma Nweze PDF (650K) |
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Abstract: COVID-19 has caused severe disruptions in global economic activities, and its impacts on stock markets cannot be overemphasized. The study employs market model and event study approach with four events (WHO announcement of COVID-19 as a global health emergency, confirmed infections, confirmed deaths, and vaccination) to examine the reactions of four African regional blocs’ markets to the pandemic from September 1, 2019, to August 31, 2021, to estimate the average abnormal returns of each regional bloc. On the day of the WHO announcement, we document insignificant negative average abnormal returns in the Northern bloc. We also document significant negative average abnormal returns for infections in all but the Northern bloc on the event day. The Western bloc generated the highest significant negative average abnormal return (-43 per cent) on the day COVID-19 death was confirmed on the continent. We finally document insignificant average abnormal returns from weeks 1 to 20 after the first vaccination in the Northern and Eastern blocs. The study recommends that investors, portfolio managers, and speculators not panic during similar pandemics since they can generate significant abnormal returns and diversify their investment holdings across the four regional blocs in Africa, as demonstrated by the COVID-19 pandemic. DOI: 10.5267/j.ac.2023.3.002 Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, Average abnormal returns, Event study, Africa regional blocs
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The effect of budget participation on the management performance through management commitment as an intervening variable
, Pages: 183-190 Digna Jatiningsih, Winwin Yadiati, Citra Sukmadilaga, Dini Rosdinia and Ilya Avianti PDF (650K) |
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Abstract: This study conducted a test to see the influence of budgeting participation on working performance through managers’ commitment as an intervening variable of managers manufacturing companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This study used descriptive analysis and statistical method Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)-Lisrel. The data was collected by using questionnaires given to 124 managers from 108 manufacturing companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The result showed that budgeting participation has a positive and significant influence on the managers’ performance through managers’ commitment as an intervening variable. The findings of this study added to the limitations of the research literature on the elaboration of variables that determine managers’ commitment and manager’s performance in manufacturing companies. DOI: 10.5267/j.ac.2023.3.001 Keywords: Budgeting participation, Managers’ commitment, Managers’ performance
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A fair-biased allocation of investment between economic sectors using social accounting matrix multiplier analysis
, Pages: 191-202 Atieh Namazi and Mohammad Khodabakhshi PDF (650K) |
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Abstract: Economists have exploited the social accounting matrix in linear economic models to analyze the effect of some variables such as government spending, investment, and export on other economic indicators including total output, employment, household income, and economic growth. In this paper, the influence of investment injection on some economic indicators is analyzed. In addition, to gather different indicators in a general view, these economic indicators are applied as inputs and outputs in a data envelopment analysis model. Overall, to get to the best possible economic conditions, a fair revenue allocation method is used based on a data envelopment analysis model to determine each economic sector’s quota of investment. Next, a kind of fair-biased allocation method improving the economic conditions in comparison to the prior model is proposed. Finally, the whole process for Iran’s social accounting matrix and subsequent results are presented. DOI: 10.5267/j.ac.2023.2.001 Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Investment allocation, Social Accounting Matrix, Multiplier analysis, Fair allocation methods
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